- 2014/01/07. This article in the Spanish press (ES)
surprisingly aggressive, mixture of incompetence, revenge of some sort?
- (§1) Bank of Shangai 8%: Wrong place, wrong time
No, it is a huge market, with high growth, where a well managed bank can shine. The group subsidiary organization (local liquidity, locally regulated, own capital) means that Santander entry is welcomed by the local authorities. The current biggest problem to fully enter China is the 20% foreign ownership limit. - (§2) Once-sleepy Spanish bank.
There have been bad periods, but since its creation in 1857, it grew from 1 branch to a regional bank, then a big Spanish bank, finally a well geographically diversified bank. Sleepy is a little bit uninformed. - (§2) Growth strategy has begun to sputter
The way Santander is going through the (EU, Spanish real estate crisis) is a consecration of the strategy. - (§3) First interview with a US publication in 2012.
Even if I doubt it is true, would it be true, the level of this Gandel article indicates it is a waste of time to do so. - (§4) Revenue level.
Yes crisis high was mid-2012. We will have to wait 2015-2016 to return to pre-crisis earnings level. And I don' care in case Botin did not see the depth of the crisis. I do care about the fact that the Group is going through it unharmed and this is for his credit. - (§5) Arenz
It was not allegation, Saenz has been judged and convicted. It is a pity he had to leave. He had a lot of common with Botin: Both educated in a Jesuit college, with the same double university degrees. Most important, he was a temperate guy with strong organization skills. - (§6) Marin
47 years old so inexperienced. Botin III himself was Santander's CEO at age of 26. Botin knows Marin very well: he was his personal secretary during 2 periods. For looking at Marin during conference calls, his character is much less temperate than Arenz. It is an error to give a preeminent role to the CEO in the case of Santander. Chairman is the key position, but I would say he is the front man of a group of stable controlling shareholders (stable: since 1857). - (§7). Shares have fallen 12% in 3 years.
Yes, but do not forget €1.8 dividend on that period. Furthermore it simply says that Santander shares are trading well under their fair value of €12. - (§8) Hard to see.
Please try better or wear some glasses in case you forgot. In case of difficult subject glass means getting an objective view from competent people. - (§9) Brazil
Brazil is no risk. R$ is going down so in € EPS contribution can suffer, but the country in itself has no major problem. They have a (strongly) social democracy, and in some industries (Petrobras, electricity) the investors are suffering. But at the basis the wealthy people living in Brazil are doing very well (I am one of them). And I am happy the poors are also doing well, as proved by the minimum salary increase by 75% in real terms on a little bit more than 10 years. - (§10) Botin did not want to comment.
Nice he did not waste his time on this article. As shareholder, I am fully happy he spends his time better. And that it is a long time ago, that I concluded Santander should spend no time on PR with US or UK financial media. - (§10) Alvarez: problems deeper than expected
yes, knowing the bottom is very difficult. - (§11) "Admits", "Maintains"
Author seems not to believe the CFO. - (§12) US
that senior editor does not understand that the main subsidiaries of Santander are UK, Spain, Consumer, Brazil. Then 2 times smaller than any of these big 4, we have US. 3 times smaller Mexico. Finally roughly 4 times smaller than the big 4, we have Portugal, Poland, Chile and Rest of Latam.
Currently US and UK subsidiaries have the same basic problem: low net interest margins. US subsidiary did not do especially good last years - (§13) ex-Sovereign loans falling
Where did he get that?! - (§14) Erroneous loans done in 2011 under watch of Botin and his daughter
Yes, all Spanish bankers are incompetent, they should be fired, and all Spanish banks should sell themself to US well managed banks. My preference is that Santander sells itself to JPM, the biggest bank in the world by fine amounts. - (§15) LTD ratio at 108% well above the 70% in the US
It is well known that US banks don't use all deposits to make loans. They also use cheap (because insured) deposit money to own trading and e.g. control aluminium distribution channel in some countries. - (§16) Tornabell opinion
Wonderfull the academic citation, that makes things look serious - (§17) Brazil again
- (§18 and following) China
and of course China growth is slowing. Wait it has been hardlanding for 2 years. No it has been starting to hardland for 2 years. No China was showing signs it will start to hardland soon for 2 years.
