Q4 2013

Results are out. (EN)

With Q4 2013 on 2014/01/30, let's start the subject.

In this article (ES), the possibility of low EPS for Q4 is discussed. The reason is BdE pushing for extra provisions in preparation of the stress tests. A political game with France and Italy.

Here are the points I will first check

• Capital: Detailed impact of recent new DTA Spanish regulations on capital ratio for 2014-2019. More news about the capital optimization (e.g. Mexico €1bi dividend end of 2013)
  No detail
• EPS: At the basis 0.12€, then €700mi from AM deal, for a total at around €0.18
  Only 0.09€. The capital gains [939mi] of 2013 are used to cover the restructuring costs [496mi], and balance sheet parking [the saldo]
• RWA: Still going down? (-8% in Q2, -4% in Q3)
  490bi, was 502bi end of Q3. Lower rate of decrease. 50% for FX effects, 50% from business in Spain. Process seems finished
• Evolution of the €1bi cost cutting program. It was announced in Q3, and is in addition of the €500mi cost cuts from Spanish and Polish merges
  Mix changed: €1.1bi from cost cutting, 400mi from merge

Then specific for each country

• Spain: completion of restructuring costs (merge Banesto), deposit costs (end of deposit war), loans amount (deleveraging done, also for companies?)
• UK: organic growth: How good was the 1|2|3 account during the quarter
  +200k customers in Q4, current account balance gbp 27.9bi from 24.6bi 
• Brazil: Net profit, loans, revenue (growth), NPL in R$
  Loans +7%, deposits +6%, NPL 5.64% from 6.12% end of S2, 
• US: SCUSA growth (impressive during the last quarter), extra20 account: initial quarter numbers
  SCUSA: New loans +140% YoY
  Santander NA: extra20: nothing to see
• Mexico: Growth. They have the objective to add 200 branches.
  +90 branches in 2013
• China: Any news
  ?