Macro

Spain

• 2015/05/01. Spanish economic previsions to 201 by the government (ES)
• 2015/01/30. Q4 GDP flash estimate at 0.7% QoQ. Annual rate is 2.0% (EN)
• 2015/01/30. Jan inflation flash estimate at -1.4% (annual rate) (INE - EN). At EU level: -0.6% (eurostat), with energy at -8.9%, other industrials -0.1%, services +1.0%
• 2015/01/23. Spanish 10Y bond yields at 1.3%, Germany at 0.38% (ES)
• 2015/01/21. +434k employed people in 2014 (ES)
• 2015/01/07. 2014 tourism statistics (ES): All record numbers.
• 2015/01/07. Dec inflation flash estimate (Yearly rate, EZ): -0.2% with -6.3% from energy (eurostat).
  Nov retail sales at +1.5% YoY (consensus: +0.2%) from +1.6% a month ago (eurostat).
  In volume, +0.6% MoM (consensus: +0.1%) from +0.6% last mon
• 2015/01/05. 10Y bonds at 1.51%, 99.9bpp higher than Germany (ES)
• 2015/01/05. Unemployment down 64.4k (consensus: -72k )in December MoM. YoY down 254k, best year since 1998, Social security affiliated up 74.9k in Dec, 418k in 2014 (ES) (ES)
• 2014/12/30. Dec inflation -0.6% MoM (INE - ES), with Nov retail sales at +1.9% (EN)
  That suggests that mild inflation (<2%)has the same effect on consumption as mild deflation (>-2%): none
• 2014/12/23. Q4 GDP up 0.6%, 1.4% for whole 2014, 2.0% for 2015 (BdE) (ES) (ES)
• 2014/12/17. Total public debt down €3.2bi in October (ES)
• 2014/12/12. Total public debt at €1.02tr, 96.8% of GDP (ES)
• 2014/12/12. Industrial production: -0.4% MoM, +1.4% YoY (eurostat)
• 2014/12/12. Spanish November inflation: -0.1%, annual rate in November -0.4%, YoY inflation -0.5% (ES)
• 2014/12/02. November unemployment -15k (consensus: +57k), -51k seasonally adjusted (ES)
• 2014/11/28. EU November inflation flash estimate at 0.3% (eurostat)
  Energy at -2.5%, services 1.1%, Food 0.5%, industrial goods 0.0%
• 2014/11/27. Provisional November inflation -0.4% (annual rate) (INE - ES)
  Nearly all from energy (electricity/gasoline)
• 2014/11/25. New short term emission: 3 months at 0.073%, 9 months at 0.296% (ES)
  A hair away from negative rate.
• 2014/11/24. 10Y bond yield under 2% (ES)
  Remember 7.6% in 2012. Difference since that time: Draghi spoke (really, all structural measures were taken at that time (2012), now Spain is releasing some stuff}. That indicates how deep US/UK market  works. Let"s hope China will not be as shortsighted when domination  in finance will become effective. Anyway cannot be worse. 
• 2014/11/21. All Spanish bonds issues for 2014 done (ES)
  €130bi. Next year, €155bi are needed
• 2014/11/21. Stock of unsold new houses down 14.3% YoY, -33% against 2010 (ES). This article (ES) covers the same but with a chart.
• 2014/10/30. October flash estimate for inflation at -0.1% (consensus: 0.0%) (EN). At EU level: +0.4% (energy -1.8%, services: +1.2%, food: +0.5%, industrial goods: -0.1%) (eurostat)
• 2014/10/23. Linde, BdE chief, says GDP grew 0.5% in Q3. INE figures on Oct 30th (ES). Data out and confirmed at 0.5% (EN) and (ES)
• 2014/10/23. Unemployement Q3 at 23.67% (consensus: 24.3%) from 24.47% in Q2 and 25.65% a year ago (INE - ES) (EN)
• 2014/10/16. €3.2bi in 10Y and 15Y bonds. (ES)
  10Y was at 2.196% up from 2.075% 2 weeks ago. volume under expected (€3.5bi)
• 2014/10/16. September inflation (eurostat): -0.3% in annual rate. (INE) gave the components for Spain 2 days ago
• 2014/10/02. September unemployment MoM non ajusted: +19.7k (consensus: +31.3k). Ajusted numbers: -33.1k (ES) (ES).
  Best September figures since 2007
• 2014/09/30. September inflation flash estimate: 0.3% YoY (eurostat)
  Mix is most interesting: energy at -2.4%, services at +1.1%.
• 2014/09/26. Mortgage: +29% YoY in July (ES)
• 2014/09/25. GDP calculation rules change and up value by €36bi, €9.2bi from drugs and prostitution (ES) 
• 2014/09/02. Unemployement August: +8k (ES), consensus was +26k
• 2014/08/29. Inter bank loan interests at -0.004% in EU (ES)
• 2014/08/29. July YTD federal deficit at €32bi, 13% less than in 2013 (ES)
• 2014/08/29. July unemployment numbers, adjusted: 24.5% from 24.6% last month and 26.2% last year (eurostat)
• 2014/08/29. Retail trade July at -0.2% MoM, adjusted, -0.5% YoY (INE - EN)
• 2014/08/28. August inflation estimate: -0.5% YoY, +0.1% MoM (INE - EN). At EU level: +0.3% YoY (eurostat)
• 2014/08/21. 14.9mi tourists in June+July, +4.7% YoY (ES)
• 2014/08/21. 3-months bills at -0.02% in secondary market (ES) (ES)
• 2014/08/18. Goods trade data up to June: deficit (eurostat)
• 2014/08/14. Public debt at €1.007 trillion (federal, regions, cities) 98.4% of GDP, up from 36.3% in 2007 (ES)
• 2014/08/13. Industrial production June: 0.8% MoM, +0.5% YoY (eurostat). Retail sale June -0.8% MoM, +0.2% YoY (eurostat)
• 2014/08/10. Europe upside down? (bloomberg)
• 2014/07/30. July inflation estimate: -0.3%, consensus +0.2%, previous +0.1% (INE - EN). Data at Euro area level +0.4% (eurostat). Final data at -0.3% (EN)
• 2014/07/30. Q2 GDP +0.6% QoQ , from 0.4% last quarter, consensus 0.5% (ES) (ES) (INE - EN) (eurostat). Confirmed on Aug 28th (INE - EN)
• 2014/07/29. Jan-June central gov deficit at 2.52% against 3.17% S1 2013 (ES)
• 2014/07/28. 10Y bond yield under 2.5% (zerohedge)
• 2014/07/24. Employment Q2: +402k QoQ (ES). Unemployement -310k QoQ (-5.2%) at 24.47% (ES) (ES) (eurostat)
• 2014/07/07. Mai industrial production index -0.7% MoM, +2.5% YoY (consensus: +3.8%) (EN).
  eurostat : -0.9%
• 2014/07/02. June unemployment: -122k (consensus: -93k) (ES)
• 2014/07/01. Mai unemployment (adjusted): 25.1%, unchanged MoM [-23k], from 26.2% YoY [-384k],  (eurostat)
• 2014/07/01. June PMI at 54.6 (consensus: 52.9) (EN)
• 2014/06/27. June CPI flash estimate at +0.1% (annual change) (EN) (eurostat)
• 2014/06/27. Mai retail sales estimate at +0.5% (annual, consensus: +1.8%) (EN)
• 2014/06/24. Public deficit 4 first months 2014 at 1.16% GDP (ES)
  17.7% less than in 2013. However for the first 5 months numbers are not that good: 2.47% GDP and -7.4% 
• 2014/06/20. Fiscal reform: lower taxes in 2 steps to 2016 (ES)
  - Income taxes: from 24.75%-52% to 19%-45% (ES)
  - Companies: from 30% to 25% (except for banks!), 15% for new companies, 10% of earnings tax exempt (ES)
  - Capital: from 27%-21% to 23%-19% (ES)
  - Consumption: unchanged
  Does this mean withholding tax on cash dividend goes from 21% now to 19% in 2016? Not clear.
  On June 24th, some more info (ES) about the dividends: Exemption for the first €1500 suppressed, tax 19% up to €6000, then 23% above €50000. High probability withholding goes to 19% in 2016.
• 2014/06/18. Production in construction April : Q1 2014 is +21.1% YoY, April 2014 is +53.4% YoY (eurostat)
• 2014/06/18. Service turnover April: +1.0% MoM adjusted, +3.0% YoY adjusted, +1.9% YoY non adjusted (EN)
• 2014/06/18. Industrial new orders April: +11.4% (YoY, provisional, adjusted (EN). YoY non adjusted stands at +6.9% (consensus: +3.6%), MoM adjusted at +5.8%
• 2014/06/16. Tax level per type of income (eurostat)
  In 2012, in Spain 32.5% against an average of 39.4% in EU28
• 2014/06/06. Spain starts to pay back EU bank rescue money: €1.3bi in 2014 (total €41.3bi) (ES) 
• 2014/06/06. Industrial production (April, Provisional, Calendar adjusted, MoM): +1.6% (EN). YoY is +4.3% (consensus: +1.9%) . Eurostat data on June 12th (1.7% MoM and 4.7% YoY)
• 2014/06/06. 10Y bond yield at 2.63% (7.6% in 07/2012) (ES)
• 2015/06/03. Mai employment: -111.9k less unemployed (ES) and (eurostat)
• 2015/06/02. Provisional Mai CPI [annual rate] at 0.2% (from 0.4% in April) (EN)
  And in Germany: -0.1% [MoM] (consensus +0.2%). Good for ECB to act this Thurday.
  Eurostat data: 0.5% (0.7% in April). The mix is detailed: lower inflation in services (1.1% from 1.6%), foods (0.1% from 0.7%) and industrial goods (0% from 0.1%). zerohedge has a nice article.
  ECB measures
• 2014/05/28. Retail sales April (provisional, seasonally adjusted): +1.1% MoM, +0.7% YoY (consensus -0.3%) (ES) (eurostat)
• 2014/05/20. Industrial new orders: +8.7% (YoY, Provisional, non seasonally adjusted, March) (consensus: +3.1%) (EN)
  Foreign markets, non € at +12.1% 
• 2014/05/19. Real estate stats Q1 YoY: numbers +45.4%, house prices: +1.6% (ES)
• 2014/05/14. April inflation figures: +0.9% MoM (ES). (eurostat)
• 2014/05/14. March industrial production: -0.6% MoM (EN)
• 2014/05/06. April unemployment: -111.6k, consensus -49.1k. (ES) and (ES). Seasonally adjusted -50.2k
• 2014/05/02. 10Y bond yield at 2.96%, lowest all time (ES)
• 2014/04/30. March provisional adjusted retail sales: -0.6% (EN)
• 2014/04/30. April provisional CPI: +0.4% (EN). At EU level: +0.7% (consensus 0.8%) (EN).
  Still energy (-1.2%) dragging down the index. Service is at +1.6%, industrial at +0.1% and food at 0.7%.
  No pressure for unconventional measures in May (ES)
• 2014/04/29. Detailed 2014 public deficit prevision: 5.8% GDP (ES). Q1 2014: 0.94% for the central gov (ES)
• 2014/04/28. Advance figures for Q1 employement: +50k, unemployment at 25.45% from 26.03% (Consensus: 25.85%) (ES). Actual figures: 25.93% (ES). Original and detailed data: (ES)
  Official figures tomorrow.
• 2014/04/25. Fitch ups Spain to BBB+ stable from BBB (ES)
  One level less ridiculous, but still significantly so.
• 2014/04/24. Car production up 27% YoY in March. 85% for exportation (ES)
• 2014/04/24. 10Y bonds at historical minimum (ES)
  €5.6bi bonds issued today, demand at €12bi, €2.65bi 10Y with yield at 3.059% Previous lowest yield was 3.165% in Sep 2005.
• 2014/04/24. Advance Q1 GDP figures: +0.4% QoQ (ES). Provisional figures on April 30th: +0.4% QoQ, +0.6% YoY (EN). Final numbers on May 29th: +0.4% QoQ, +0.5% YoY (ES)
  And btw, Q1 growth in USA economy was 0.1% initial numbers. Revised figures edging to -0.6% (EN)
  On Mai 15th, Eurostat data (EN)
• 2014/04/24. New methodology for unemployement figures: 380k employed found (ES) (ES)
• 2014/04/22. 2013 population stats: YoY -546k foreigners (-9.8%), +146k Spaniards (+0.3%) (ES)
• 2014/04/21. Feb. NPL down to 13.42% from 13.52% (ES)
• 2014/04/14. Feb home sales: +40% YoY, price up 0.6% (ES)
• 2014/04/11. March inflation: -0.1% annual rate during month, -1.2% YoY (EN)
• 2014/04/07. February Industrial production, provisional: +0.7% MoM, +2.8% YoY (Consensus: +1.7%) (EN - INE) (EN - Eurostat)
• 2014/04/04. 5Y bonds at 1.8%, same as 5Y US, even with Spain rated 8 levels lower (ES) EN)
  Spanish 10Y is at 3.2% from 7.59% in July 2012.
• 2014/04/03. Retail sales February: -0.1% MoM (adjusted for working days and season) (EN)
• 2014/04/02. March unemployement -16.6k (consensus: -5.3k) (ES)
• 2014/04/01. Spanish PMI (EN)
• 2013/03/28. 2013 public deficit out: 6.62% of GDP; 0.12% above 6.5% EU target (ES) (ES)
  2014 target is 5.8%. Eurostat figures (EN)
• 2013/03/28. March inflation flash estimate: -0.2% (EN). On April 16th, Eurostat data
  At EZ level: +0.5%: -2.1% energy, +0.3% industrials, +1.0% food; +1.1% services (EN)
• 2013/03/25. IPI YoY, February, provisional, at -2.9% (consensus: -1.9%-). MoM -0.7% (-0.715% coming from electricity and gas) (EN)
• 2014/03/21. Industrial new orders Jan -5.5% MoM (ES). Industrial revenues +0.3% (ES)
• 2014/03/14. House sales Jan: -23% YoY, +34.9% MoM (ES)
• 2014/03/13. Retail trade Jan: +2.4% MoM (ES). +0.5% YoY (consensus: -0.8%) (EN)
• 2014/03/12. Feb MoM inflation 0.0% (ES). Eurostat data (EN) (March 17th)
• 2014/03/10. Provisional industrial production index Jan 2014. (EN).
  +1.1% YoY, including -4.2% for energy components. Much more data in the link.
• 2014/03/07. House prices Q4 2013: -7.8% YoY, -1.3% QoQ. (EN)
• 2014/03/05. Bonds issues today (ES)
  10Y: €1.14bi, 3.356%, lowest since Jan 2006.
  5Y: €1.74bi, 2.139%, lowest ever.3Y: €2.15bi, 1.339%, lowest ever.
• 2013/03/04. Unemployment in Feb MoM: -2k (consensus was +74k). Seasonally adjusted: -55k (ES).
  First non seasonally adjusted improvement in February since 2007.
  On April 1st, Eurostat data (EN)
• 2014/03/03. Spanish mfg PMI at 48 months high (EN)
• 2014/02/28. 2013 current account at +€7.1bi (ES)
  First surplus ever (1990), and this comes from -€110bi in 2008
• 2014/02/28. Unemployment Jan at 25.8% (was 25.9% in Dec) (EN)
• 2014/02/28. EZ Feb inflation at 0.8% (consensus 0.7%) (EN).
  Service 1.3% (1.2% in Jan), Industrial 0.7% (0.2% Jan), Food 1.5% (1.7% Jan), Energy -2.2% (-1.2% Jan). Based on this mix, ECB has no reason to do anything.
• 2014/02/22. Moody's ups Spain to Baa2 positive from Baa3 stable (EN) and (ES)
• 2014/02/18. NPL at 13.6%, highest ever (ES) and a soft English version (EN). If the Spanish bad bank is included NPL at 16% (ES)
  Santander NPL Q4 2013 at 5.64% at group level (7.49% in Spain), with 61.7% coverage (44% in Spain) 
• 2014/02/17. 2013 house sales down 20%; mortgage -28%; 39% of the sales are cash only; prices -8.6% (ES) and (ES). Complete stats here (EN) (Feb 26th)
• 2014/02/17. Industrial new orders Dec +7.8%, previous -5.1%, consensus -3.0% (EN). The original data is here much more detailed (EN)
  Madrid is at +127% in Dec against 2013 average.
• 2014/02/14. Trade data Jan-Nov 2013: YoY Exports: +4%, Imports: -4%, balance: €-14.4bi (from -31.0bi) (EN). The trade data full 2013 is -€16bi (-48% YoY) thanks to +5.2% exports and -1.3% imports (ES)
• 2014/02/14. Previsional Q4 2013 GDP up 0.3% QoQ, -0.1% YoY (EN).
  Final data +0.2% QoQ and -0.2% YoY (ES)
• 2014/02/14. Public debt central gov +€77bi in 2013 to €788bi. Including local public entities, probably above 100% GDP (ES) .
  Previsional data here (ES): 93.7%, highest since 1909, was 36.7% in 2007.
  Final data (March 14th): 93.9% (ES)
• 2014/02/14. Inflation MoM Jan -1.3%, YoY +0.2% (EN)
• 2014/02/12. Industrial production -0.2% MoM in Dec 2013, +1.7% YoY (EN)
• 2014/02/12. 311k house sale in 2013, -2.2% YoY, slowest decrease in 3 years (ES) and here the original data (ES)
• 2014/02/07. 10Y bond yield at lowest level since 2006 on German court decision about OMT (ES) or (ES)
• 2014/02/04. +113k unemployed in Jan, consensus was -21k (ES)
• 2014/01/31. Current account Nov 2013 surplus at +873mi (ES)
• 2014/01/29. Deposits +€40bi YoY to €948bi (ES)
• 2014/01/29. Black economy growing (ES) or (ES)
  +€60bi since 2008. 24.8% of official GDP
• 2014/01/29. Retail sales Dec: -1.0% YoY, -3.5% MoM (EN)
• 2014/01/28. Objective for GDP growth in 2014 is 1% (ES)
  That is from the finance minister de Guindos. The real reason I put the link here is that there is a nice photo of this friendly guy.
• 2014/01/28.Public deficit up to Nov at 5.44% of GDP (ES) and here the original data (ES)
  Objective for full 2013 is lower than 6.5%
• 2014/01/23. Unemployment numbers Q4 from INE (ES)
  -69k unemployed in 2013 (1st diminution since 2007), but also -200k less active people
  And here are the eurostat statistics (EN)
  Unemployment at 25.8% in Dec 2013, down from 26.1% in Nov.
• 2014/01/22. Commercial numbers to Nov (ES)
  YTD exports Jan-Nov 2013 at €216bi, +5.4% YoY, Maximum all times
  YTD imports Jan-Nov 2013 at €230bi, -1.8% YoY.
• 2014/01/21. IMF improves Spanish 2014 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 0.2% (ES)
  The link has a nice picture of the friendly Spanish finance minister de Guindos (do not confuse Lagarde with de Guindos, should be easy to pick).
  Only Brazil got lowered growth forecast (PT): from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2014. Surely a crash landing.  I am sure this is consistent with the fact that the country is primary goods exporter.
• 2014/01/15. Inflation 2013 at 0.3%, lowest all times (ES) 
• 2014/01/14. Q4 QoQ GDP growth at 0.3%? (ES). Confirmation here (ES)
• 2014/01/10. Industrial production Nov 2013; +2.6% YoY (EN).
  Consensus was +1.2%.
• 2014/01/09. First bond auction in 2014 (ES)
  5 years with lowest interest ever, good demand. Other maturities also improving. 
• 2014/01/08. 60.4mi tourists in 2013, €45bi revenue (ES).
  Best numbers ever. However numbers are not final (Dec is projected)
  Actual numbers on Jan 21th: 60.6mi (ES)
• 2014/01/06. Number of companies Nov 2013: +0.51% YoY (ES).
  1st time up since beginning of the crisis.
• 2014/01/06. Markit Dec. Service PMI at 54.2, against 51.5 in Nov, consensus was 51.5 (EN)
  Best numbers since July 2007.
• 2014/01/02. Unemployment Dec 2013: -108k. YTD: -146k (ES) and (ES)
  Best December numbers ever (1997)
• 2014/01/02. New house prices down 7.8% YoY in 2013 (ES)
• 2014/01/02. Loans to people up 0.51% MoM in Nov. For companies still going down -8.7% (ES)
• 2014/01/02. 10Y bonds yield at 4% (7.6% in Jul 2012), 2Y at 1.22% (minimum all times), 5Y at 2.44% (near all times minimum) (ES)
• 2014/01/02. Markit Mfg PMI at 50.8 in Dec, against 48.6 in Nov, consensus was 49.9 (EN)
• 2013/12/30. Retail sales Nov, MoM, at constant prices and seasonally adjusted: +1.9% (EN)
• 2013/12/27. Current account Oct 2013 from Banco de Espana (EN)
  Current account YTD: 2012 = -€15.3bi, 2013 = +€4.2bi (of which +30bi in tourism)
  Capital account YTD: 2012 = +€4.9bi, 2013 = +€5.8bi
  Much more data in the link, including monthly series
• 2013/12/18. NPL at record high in Oct: 13% up from 12.68% in Sep (ES)
• 2013/12/16. Trade data from Eurostat (EN). Here is for Spain YTD up to Sep:
  2012: Exports = €170.2bi, Imports = €198.1bi, Balance = -€27.9bi
  2013: Exports = €178.3bi, Imports = €189.9bi, Balance = -€11.6bi
• 2013/12/16. House prices Q3 2013 up 0.7% QoQ (ES)
  First time for 3 years. However YoY -7.9%
• 2013/12/13. Public debt at maximum since 1912: 93.4% (ES)
• 2013/12/12. S&P does not see Spain rating moving for 2 years due to high debt level (ES)
• 2013/12/12. Housing sales -10% MoM in Oct 2013 (ES)
• 2013/12/10. Spanish population down 118k in S1 2013. (ES). Original data from INE (ES)
• 2013/12/06. The strange situation of new constructions (ES)
  Spanish banks are constructing 24% of the total. The objective is to sell the lands they foreclosed.
• 2013/12/05. The bad state of the real estate market (EN)
• 2013/12/05. 5 years bond yields at lowest level since Jul 2005 (ES)
• 2013/12/05. Industrial production -0.8% YoY (EN)
• 2013/12/04. Moody's ups Spain rating from negative to stable (ES) (ES)
  S&P did it last week, Fitch one month ago, and 2 days ago ESMA had this communicate (EN)
• 2013/12/04. Service PMI 51.5, up from 49.6, consensus was 49.6 (EN)
• 2013/12/04. Markit PMI at 50.8, 3 months high (EN)
• 2013/12/03. PPI data for October: -0.6% MoM (EN)
• 2013/12/03. The troika (EU commission, IMF, ECB) confirms the successfull end of Spanish bank rescue (ES)
  €41bi utilized out the €100bi available; 0.5% interest, 15 years.
• 2013/12/03. Unemployment down 2,475 MoM, 1st time since 1996, -2.02% YoY (ES)
• 2013/12/02. On overview on the interests on deposits (ES)
• 2013/12/02. Tourism sector 9 months 2013 surplus €26.8bi (+3.7% YoY) (ES)
• 2013/12/02. Industrial PMI 48.7, expected 51.0, last month 50.9 (EN) (EN) and (EN)
• 2013/11/29. €46.7bi investment inflow into Spain YTD 2013 (ES)
  For 2012, there was an outflow of €224bi
• 2013/11/29. Unemployment numbers from eurostat (EN)
  26.7%, seasonally adjusted, up 0.1% from September
• 2013/11/29. S&P ups Spain rating from negative to stable (ES)
  Fitch did it one month ago.
• 2013/11/26. Public deficit 9 months 2013 at 4.8% (ES)
• 2013/11/22. Interesting statistics about real estate sales (ES)
  Foreigners bought in Q3 2013 17.2%, maximum since statistics exist (2006). Out of these 17.2%, ranking is France (10.7%), Russia (8.7%), Germany (7.6%) and Belgium (7.5%)
• 2013/11/19. Car sales jump 34%. (EN)
• 2013/11/18. NPL at record level : 12.68% (ES). That is 50 years highest (ES).
• 2013/11/15. Possibility of new tax on deposit €5.5bi
• 2013/11/15. Deposit war well finished (ES)
  Interest for people: YTD from 4.14% to 4.22%. Interest on deposits from 1.39% to 1.07%
  and here a more detailed article (ES)
  Only the 0.25% recent drop on ECB rate lowers interests paid by banks by 1.7bi
• 2013/11/14. Q3 PIB QoQ +0.1% (EN).
  More details in the INE press release (ES)
  And here the 2nd eurostat estimate of 2013/12/04. +0.1% QoQ, -1.1% YoY (EN)
• Consumption: +0.4%, construction -1.0%, equipment goods +1.1%, exportations +2.2%, importations +2.8%
• 2013/11/13. Industrial production +0.4% MoM in September (EN)
• 2013/11/05. September unemployment up 87k (ES)
  This is absolute numbers. Seasonally adjusted, best numbers since 2006.
• 2013/10/06. Capital requirements for loans to SME down by 23%. (ES)
• 2013/10/04. How to cut interest in half on 27bi. Pay back early. (EN)
• 2013/09/17. EC confirms that Cataluyna leaving Spain means they leave EU and euro as well (FR) 
• 2013/06/03. Family debt down 4.8%. Back to 2007 level (ES)
• 2013/05/30. Spanish banks have 38.3% of Spanish public debt
  Santander exposure is limited
• 2013/05/30. PIB Q1 2013 -0.5% QoQ.
  Exportation +2.9%, internal consumption -4.9%
• 2013/05/28. Spanish public deficit April: 25bi (ES)
• 2013/05/18. Growing exportations, and shrinking commercial gap (ES)
• 2013/05/14. First commercial surplus in history (ES)
• 2013/05/13. Spanish region spending (ES)
  34.7bi in Q1 2013, 2.1bi less than in Q1 2012
• 2013/05/15. Public employees down 105k, back to 2008 level (ES)
• 2013/04/25. Without black economy, Spain would have had a revolution (FR)
• 2012/10/27. Aug 2012 NPL at 10.5% (ES)
  Also companies without real estate purpose are suffering

Brazil

• 2015/04/30. SELIC at 13.25% (PT)
• 2015/03/26. Unemployment up 60bpp MoM to 5.9% (IBGE - PT)
• 2015/02/26. Unemployment up 100bpp MoM to 5.3% (IBGE - PT)
• 2015/01/30. [Article] Brazil is on the verge of a total collapse (zerohedge) 
• 2015/01/23. Employment Dec 2014: -555k MoM, Seasonally adjusted: -10k MoM,
  For whole 2014: +153k, worst number since statistics exist (1999) (PT)
• 2014/12/28. Foreign money in Bovespa: -R$3.1bi in Dec (to 22th), +R$19.5bi YTD (PT)
• 2014/12/19. Unemployement at 4.8% (4.7% a month ago, 4.6% a year ago) (consensus 4.5%) (IBGE - PT)
• 2014/12/03. SELIC +50bpp at 11.75% (PT)
  Expected (US/UK) was +25bpp at 11.50%, all Brazilian expectations I read were +50bpp.
• 2014/12/02. October industrial production: 0.0% MoM, -3.6% YoY (consensus: +0.2% and -3.3%) (PT)
• 2014/12/01. Worst commercial deficit ever in November at -USD2.4bi (PT)
• 2014/11/29. Net foreign saldo into Bovespa at +R$1.6bi for Nov, R$22.5bi YTD (PT)
• 2014/11/19. 3 good numbers these last 2 days:
  Inflation for Nov at 0.38% (expected: 0.5%) (PT)
  Unemployment for Oct at 4.7% (expected 4.9%) (PT)
  Nominal service revenue for Sep at +6.4% YoY (PT)
  This last stat also says +7.1% accumulated on 12 months. I don't get the difference between "accumulated 12 months (at 7.1%)" and YoY (at 6.4%)
• 2014/11/14. Real estate sales down 50% YoY in Sao Paulo (PT)
  Impressive, but most of of mortgages are at most at 50% of the value because weight for computing RWA is 0.5 to 50%, 1.0 above
• 2014/10/31. September primary deficit at R$25.5bi, worst ever (2001). Interest costs for the month at R$43.9bi, for a total deficit of R$69.4bi (PT)
• 2014/10/30. SELIC at 11.25%, +0.25% (PT)
• 2014/10/27. Dilma Rousseff is reelected (PT)
• 2014/10/23. Sep unemployment at 4.9% (consensus: 5.1%) from 5.0% last month. (IBGE - PT)
• 2014/10/22. Service revenue August +4.5% (nominal) YoY highest increase ever (2011) (PT)
• 2014/10/09. Sep YoY inflation at 6.75% (PT)
• 2014/10/04. YoY YTD Real estate sales in Sao Paulo down 48.8% in units, and 52.7% in value (PT)
• 2014/10/02. Commercial balance September at -$939mi, worst since 1997. YTD at -$690mi (PT)
• 2014/09/29. Efficient market at work: reacting to one and only one input: election polls (zerohedge)
• 2014/09/26. August unemployment at 5.0%, lowest since 2002 for that month (PT)
• 2014/09/11. Real estate in Sao Paulo (PT): Jan-April is -17.7% YoY, with discounts at 30%
• 2014/09/02. Net foreign purchases Bovespa in August +R$1.9bi. YTD at +R$17.6bi (PT)
• 2014/09/02. Car sales August: -7.43% MoM, -16% YoY (PT)
• 2014/08/31. IBOV +9.78% in August (PT)
• 2014/08/31. July federal accounts worst since the start of the historical data (1997) with a R$2.2bi deficit (PT) Whole public sector (primary account) is at R$-4.7bi (PT)
• 2014/08/29. Q2 GDP -0.6%QoQ (consensus -0.4%), -0.9% YoY (consensus (-0.6%) (PT) (IBGE - PT)
  For YoY, fixed asset investments at -11.2% and industry at -3.4%
  The finance minister Mantega maintains 2015 at 3.0%... (PT)
  And like in the US, weather is utilized: A lot of rain in 2015!!! 
• 2014/08/29. Proposal for minimum wage to R$788.06 in 2015, up 8.8% from R$724 in 2014 (PT)
• 2014/08/26. Marina to beat Dilma 45% to 36% 2nd turn (PT)
  It is worth reading the impressive Marina Silva's biography (wikipedia - EN). The Portuguese version is much more complete (wikipedia - PT) e.g. adding she learnt to read at age of 16. (better to use the Portuguese version after a google translate than the English version!)
• 2014/08/22. Worst July job opening in 15 years (PT)
• 2014/08/22. Worst June real estate sales in 5 years for SP (PT)
• 2014/07/21. Presidential elections: Dilma (44%) >< Aecio (40%) for 2nd turn (PT)
• 2014/07/03. Here comes the effect of Brazil qualification against Chile. Dilma goes to 38% (from 34%). Nearest followers are at 20% (Aecio Neves) and 9% (Eduardo Campos) (PT)
• 2014/07/02. IBOV not only reacting only to Dilma polls, but Dilma polls themselves to get a major boost from world cup... (PT)
• 2014/06/06. Project Tamar sponsored by Petrobras. In 1982, 2,000 marine tortoises were born. This year it will be 20mi (PT)
  Petrobras is 10% of the economy, will double its size by 2020. Its current investment plan on 5 years is $230bi.
  In my paranoiac periods, I consider the main reason for the investment community to put pressure on Brazil is to trigger a fire sales of Petrobras. 
• 2014/06/06. That is quite some time; that I don't post any figures about Brazil. IBOV for some time reacts to only one kind of news: polls for Oct 2014 presidential elections: The macro indicators are neither good nor bad, mainly above consensus. Public debt going down, trade balance even, good services and consumption figures, weak industrials, strong investment flow into IBOV, unemployemnt staying a record low levels and inflation bad but stable . Some shares (like Vale) have mild reactions to China. That is it and this is a course a clear indicator how efficient the markets are to summarize the economic data.
• 2014/05/09. March inflation figures: +0.67% (EN)
• 2014/05/09. Brazil is #38 among 40 when rating education (PT)
• 2014/05/07. March industrial production: -0.5% MoM (Consensus: -2.5%) (PT)
• 2014/04/24. Tombini to become finance minister in place of Mantega??? (PT).
  Mantega is bad: he is worst than Donald Trump which is very difficult to achieve. However he is better than Sarah Palin, an impossible beat.
• 2014/04/17. March unemployment at 5.0%, from 5.1% last month, and 5.7% one year ago. Consensus was 5.4% (EN)
• 2014/04/16. February services revenue: YoY +10.4%, YTD +9.8% (EN) 
• 2014/04/15. February retail sales (volumes): +0.2% MoM, +8.5% YoY, +7.4% YTD (EN)
• 2014/04/09. March inflation at 0.92% MoM, highest for 13 years. 12 months at 6.15% against consensus of 6.05% (EN)
• 2014/04/02. February industrial production up 5.0% YoY (consensus +4.9%) and 0.4% MoM (EN) 
• 2014/04/02. SELIC at 11% (PT) and as a consequence average consumer credit interest goes to 97.49% per year (PT)
• 2014/04/01. March trade balance at +$0.1bi (PT)
  Still the worst March number since 2001.
• 2014/03/28. February primary surplus of R$2.1bi (consensus: deficit of R$0.5bi) (PT). Net public debt to GDP at 33.7% from 33.3% in Jan (consensus: 34.0%) (EN)
• 2014/03/28. Chinese rating agency Dagong Global Credit Rating puts Brazil at A-, 3 levels above S&P. (PT)
• 2014/03/27. Banco Central do Brasil inflation outlook. (EN)
  Much more than inflation outlook. Full of interesting data.
• 2014/03/27. €1bi 7Y bonds issued, coupon 2.875%, sold at 99.464% of face value (yield 2.961%).
  First issue in € since 2006.
  Compare 2.961% for a BBB- bond to 2.258% for AAA US 7Y bonds. Something is wrong.
• 2014/03/27. Unemployment Feb 2014 at 5.1%, from 4.8% in Jan and 5.6% a year ago (PT)
• 2014/03/25. S&P lowers country rating to BBB- (ES) and the day after lowers rating of 13 companies including Santander Brasil (PT)
• 2014/03/18. Services Jan 2014: +9.3M YoY. (PT)
• 2014/03/14. Retail sales Jan: +0.4% MoM (consensus: -0.3%); +6.2% YoY (consensus: 4.6%) (EN)
• 2014/02/28. Net debt to GDP ratio at 33.3% from 33.8%, consensus was 33.6% (EN)
• 2014/02/27. GDP QoQ +0.7% (consensus +0.3%); YoY +1.9% (consensus +1.6%) (EN)
• 2014/02/27. SELIC at 10.75% (PT)
• 2014/02/21. Current account -$11.6bi in Jan 2014 (PT)
• 2014/02/20. January unemployment at 4.8% (PT)
  Lower than the most pessimistic 27 Reuters projections...
• 2014/02/20. Central bank of Brazil had R$31.9bi net earnings in 2013 (PT)
• 2014/02/20. Primary surplus of 1.9% PIB in 2014 budget. (PT) and (PT)
• 2014/02/17. YTD commercial balance at -$6.1bi (PT)
• 2014/02/13. Dec retail sales volume -0.2% (consensus: +0.4%) MoM, +4.0% (consensus: +5.1%) YoY (EN). In value: +0.5% MoM, +10.7% YoY.
• 2014/02/12. Real estate sales in Sao Paulo 2013: +23.6% YoY (PT). New houses construction +16.4% YoY (PT), Rental prices for carnival at the SP coast: +109% (PT). Commercial real estate (high standing) in-occupancy at 18.6% (+540bpp) (PT). Average rental price for commercial real estate -12.3% (PT)
• 2014/02/07. Inflation numbers up to Jan 2014. (PT)
  0.55% in Jan, +5.59% YoY
• 2014/02/04. Industrial production up to Dec 2013 (EN).
  -3.5% MoM, +1.2% YoY
• 2014/01/31. Primary surplus in 2013 at 1.9% GDP. Interest on existing debt at 5.18% (PT). Net public debt at 34.8%, from 34.9% last month, consensus was 35% (EN)
• 2014/01/31. 1.8mi new companies in 2013, +8.8% YoY (PT)
• 2014/01/17. Average interest for credit cards: 280% per year (PT)
  Santander's platinum card is winner with 700% yearly interests.
• 2014/01/16. Retail sales up 7% in 2013. Consensus was 6% (EN)
• 2014/01/15. Central rate (SELIC) increased by 50bpp to 10.5% (PT)
  Consensus was 25bpp increase. 
• 2014/01/12. Inflation 2013: 5.91% against 5.84% in 2012 (PT)
• 2014/01/09. Some incredible statistics about overdue bills (PT)
  20.8% of the families have overdue bills in Dec 2013. This comes from 21.2% in Nov 2013 and 21.7% in Dec 2012.
  Still banks are making profits. The similarly incredible high rates explain why. (Here the December average rate: 92.29% per year for people, 46.78% for companies: PT)
• 2014/01/09. Retail sales up 5.2% in 2013 YoY (PT).
  Lowest growth rate in 10 years.
• 2014/01/09. Grains production in 2013 up 16.2% YoY (PT)
• 2014/01/08. Industrial production Nov: +0.4% YoY, consensus was -1.0% (PT)
• 2014/01/07. Financial flows related to Brazil in 2013 (PT)
  External share funds: -$5.9bi, external bonds funds: -$4.4bi, directly in IBOV: +$4.9bi
  And some other statistics (PT)
  Financial balance: -$23.4bi; Commercial balance: +$11.1bi
• 2014/01/06. Disaster to come in 2014 for Dilma Youssef (PT)
  This comes from a biblic numerologist, significantly more trustable than the US economic press
• 2014/01/03. Primary surplus 2013 federal government: R$75bi (PT)
• 2014/01/03. Trade balance 2013 at +$2.6bi (PT)
  However Petrobras "exported" $7.7bi of assets to its Dutch subsidiary. In reality deficit of $5.2bi, worst numbers since 1998
• 2013/12/30. YTD foreigners influx into Bovespa at R$11.5bi (PT).
  This is in my opinion the main reason of Brazil bad press
• 2013/12/27. Net public debt at 33.9% of GDP, against 35.1% last month. (PT)
  I really do not understand the current pressure by investment world on Brazil (I mean in a way that can be written down). This includes the rating agencies.
  Analysis consensus was 34.3%
• 2013/12/26. Minimum salary at R$724 in 2014 (PT)
  Increase against 2013 in real terms +1.18%; Nominal increase: +6.78%
  Increase since 2002 in real terms +72.35%. Nominal increase: +110.05%
• 2013/12/03. PIB down 0.5% in Q3 against Q2 (PT)
• 2013/11/29. Primary surplus central government: R$5.4bi in Oct 2013, R$33.4bi YTD (PT)
• 2013/11/28. Yesterday Banco Central of Brasil raised SELIC by 50bpp to 10.0% (PT)
  As a consequence average interests per year for consumer loans at 92.26%
• 2013/11/27. A R$150bi potential trial (EN)
  For all banks in Brazil. Not very concerned about Santander Brasil: The biggest hits would be on Banco of Brasil and Caixa, both state controlled.
• 2013/11/18. Bad loan index up 3.7% in October. (PT)
  Attributed to extra expenses for "Day of the children", and more working days
• 2013/10/24. Reputation ranking: Brazil better than US (PT) 
• 2013/10/23. BlackRock is investing more in Brazil and less in Mexico (PT)
• 2013/09/27. Average annual interest rate going up: 36.5% for people, 20.6% for companies (PT)
• 2013/10/09. Central bank rate (SELIC) up by 0.5%, Average annual interests for consumer loans at 91.1% (PT)
• 2013/09/24. Current deficit in Brazil on 1 year: 3.6% of PIB (PT)
• 2013/09/17. Saldo share purchase by foreigners: positive R$10bi in 2013 (PT)
  Better to do it when IBOV is low, and this include active disinformation
• 2013/09/06. EM crisis (FED dumping QE) (EN)
  Basic figures, and why the loser will be the US
• 2013/06/03. Worst commercial deficit since 2002 (PT)
  oops, not deficit, but surplus. Anyway it is true that it is the worst surplus since 2002.

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