News

Group news

  • 2015/11/05. Q3 results (All presentations)
  • 2015/09/24. Investor day (EN)
    First group communicate in 53 days, longest gap ever.
    The presentations detail the new strategy all around commercial, in the future, with very few realized objectives yet. The exception is 1|2|3 accounts in Spain. (cincodias - ES)
    Then there is (1) the promise to increase dividend together with EPS and (2) local IPO off, 
  • 2015/07/30. Q2 results (EN)
    1.7bi profit, lower than the 2.6bi expected.
    As usual the exceptionals are parked in balance sheet (835mi)
  • 2015/07/01. New management in Spain, more changes at corporate level (elconfidencial) (cincodias) (communicate - EN)
  • 2015/06/19. New presentation about 3-years plan.
    New strategy target figures with some original meat. Future Sep 23th-24th investor day is once again repeated as first milestone.
  • 2015/06/09. The director in charge of shareholders asks for pre-retirement (elconfidencial)
    Not replaced: his job goes to investor relations.  He was directly reporting to Emilio Botin. One possible reasons for his departure is bad relationship with new management.
  • 2015/05/26. 1|2|3 account launched in Spain (ES)
    It occurs after UK and US (in the form of extra20 account). When will it also occur in the other countries?
    That the first relevant news about Santander in nearly 1 month!
  • 2015/03/28. General assembly 2015 (EN)
    The only section I read is about last capital increase. The new chairman tried a kind of justification. There is none. Read for example this stupid extract at page 11  (to read in the context of capital increase reserved for a few institutional investors)
    "Subsequently, retail shareholders had ample opportunity to buy shares on the market at the price at which the capital increase was carried out, and even at a lower price in the days following the issue"
    [It is stupîd and misleading because few individuals have the money available to shot these situations]
    Same effect as €7.5bi capital increase would have been to go on with script dividend for 5 more quarters, with tax free effects for previous shareholders.
    The capital increase gave company control to institutionals. First through the new shares, then because how it was presented and combined with the dividend cut, it triggered a 10% fire sale by individuals shareholders.
    Why doing this? I am so sorry to find nothing better than a retribution for chairman election. 
    Strangely enough, I think this will increase capital gains for any long because it makes Santander a behaving bank.

    There is also the coverage from cincodias (ES) with (retail) investors questions centered on dividend. 
  • 2015/03/27. TLAC and Santander (ES)
    19.5% of RWA. €6-8bi additional capital each year to 2019, all types, including coco.
  • 2015/03/25. MS conference presentation (EN)
    Zero original information. Investor's day on Sep 23-24 seems to be the first checkpoint of the new strategy.
  • 2015/03/05. Fixed Income presentation 2015 (EN)
    With focus on capital figures
  • 2015/02/26. 2014 annual report and chairman's letter (EN)
    The chairman's letter is probably the most extensive new strategy description, not very sexy but gave good results in the UK.
  • 2015/02/18. Euromoney nominates Santander best private bank in Argentine, Chile and Portugal (EN), 
  • 2015/02/03. Q4 results (All presentations - EN) (Financial report)
    Separate post
  • 2015/01/16. Corporate structure changes (Press release - EN)
    From 15 divisions to 11. Half of the directors are from close guard (ES)
  • 2014/12/11. Santander took €4.6bi in 2nd TLTRO (reuters)
  • 2014/12/05. Société Générale Conference presentation (EN)
    First presentation of the new CFO, José Garcia Cantera, centered on Outlook, however mainly qualitative.
    There is a new look and also variation in contents, in particular the emphasis on commercial approach.  As top pick: slide 20. It gives quantitative market share objectives per main market (in [] current market share):
    Spain [14], Mexico [14], Portugal [11]: 15%
    UK [10], Brazil [10], Poland [10], Argentina [9]: 10%
    US [3]: 5%
    Chile with 19% market share: keep.
    2 remarks: (a) Absent from the list is core country Germany. (b) Push in Portugal and US whilst Mexico is near completion.

    A must read presentation.
  • 2014/12/03. Two new presentations on the corporate site:
    Fixed Income presentation 2014: Description of the group, with last financial figures
    Mortgage covered bonds: Real estate market state in Spain
  • 2014/11/29. The Banker names Santander bank of the year in Western Europe, Spain and Portugal (Press release)
  • 2014/11/25. Jose Antonio Alvarez, previously CFO, replaces Javier Marin as CEO (Communicate - EN) (ES) (bloomberg)
    As always insider information from Segovia (ES)
    Ana Botin fired Marin, bad relations, especially after the consequences of BBVA capital increase on Santander. 2 other members of the board also fired. There were discussions about who would become new CEO. Alvarez is from the inner Saenz guard.
  • 2014/11/04. Q3 results in separate post (EN)
  • 2014/09/17. Santander to ask €9bi of TLTRO money today (estimation) (ES). €82.6bi total allocation against €110-150bi espected (ES). Santander asked €3.6bi (ES)
  • 2014/09/15. Extraordinary general assembly approves capital increase for Brazil shares repurchase (EN) (Official filing)
    It is a voluntary operation. In case all SANB3/SANB4/SANB11/BSBR are bought, EPS will increase by 1.3%, despites 5.62% more SAN shares
    In official filing the issue price of new shares is detailed: €7.046 (share value on the day before the exchange announcement). That means that Santander Brazil shareholders receives 20% premium, plus the increase of SAN shares since April 24th (now nearly 10%)
  • 2014/09/10. Emilio Botin is dead. Separate post. Ana Patricia Botin is the new chairman (communicate - EN)
  • 2014/09/08. Fixed Income presentation 2014 (EN)
    No new information, but a nice group overview with the latest financial figures
  • 2014/09/02. Coco communicate: €2.5bi targetted. (ES). Issue completed: €1.5bi at 6.25% (ES). Communicate with the details
  • 2014/08/29. 6500 Santander managers without 14.4mi stock options because of low relative Santander shares performance (ES)
  • 2014/08/27. Coco emission for Tuesday next week (ES) (reuters) (bloomberg)
    Expected: €1.5bi, 5.5%.
    That is the 3rd coco this year, last one was 6.375%. More to expect. Counts as additional tier I capital, including for Oct stress tests results.
    In total, it will be the 3rd consecutive quarter that Santander raises €3bi tier I capital (each quarter). The 7 quarters before, the rate was only €1.5bi (each)
    A 5.5% coco is a wonderful lever for existing shareholders. This because (1) current dividend yield is 7.8% (€0.6/€7.7) significantly higher than 5.5%, (2) coco adds to capital and (3) capital is needed to grow.
    In that way of thinking, Santander issuing coco at 5.5% or (previous one) 6.375% is a strong indication the dividend yield will stay at least higher (than 6.375%), say €0.6 per year for foreseeable (3-5) years, as it has been for the last 5 years.
  • 2014/07/29. Botin hints at "Very good" Q2 results (reuters)
  • 2014/07/11. Euromoney names Santander best bank in many countries (EN)
  • 2014/06/24. Fixed income presentation (EN)
    79 slides, each one worth the read time. It is a general presentation covering the group and then each unit.
    2 slides are top pick
    - 33: Large capital surplus in 2014: €25.3bi"
    - 35: Capital ratio target in 2019!!! 12.5% tier I, 14.5% tier I+II
    I have made a separate post about the topic 
  • 2014/06/19. Spanish bad bank for companies to start in July (ES)
    Separate post for details (€150bi recapitalization). It is a Spanish specific topic, but in my opinion the most important news for the whole group in 2014 (hence in group news) 
  • 2014/06/11. GS presentation done by Marin (EN)
  • 2014/06/06. 4 Spanish companies reverse the dilution effect of dividend scrips through shares repurchases (ES)
    In Santander case, additional capital and share dilution through scrips is acceptable as far as it finances growth either organic, either but not exclusively M&A. In fact for that purpose and in the current market situation, scrips are best because (1) tax free for existing shareholders and (2) the alternative -new rights issue- will offer discounts. Santander is rising a lot of extra capital. Starting last quarter of 2014, through 2015, we will see if Botin is still the master in the M&A activity. Botin's motto is: "Eat before being eaten". This together with the BIS III implementation and EZ banking union makes me guess that Santander will make no share repurchase.
  • 2014/05/08. Up to $2.5bi additional CoCo to be issued (EN) (ES) and (ES)
    Considered in the stress tests; part of Additional Tier I capital; in addition of the €1.5bi of MarchDemand already at $10bi, pricing today! (EN)
    End of the day communicate: $1.5bi, 6.375% (EN)
  • 2014/04/29. Q1 2014 results in separate post
  • 2014/04/01. 2 local stress tests out recently (March 21th) : Brazil and US. Both positive (PT), (EN)
    Also linked in the countries section in this page.
    Reuters is also out with the 10 days old news (EN) and combines this with the March 26th FED rejection of the capital plan for US Holdings (a separate topic)
  • 2014/03/31. Botin talks about the €40mi per year Ferrari F1 sponsoring (ES) and (ES)
    Santander got in 2013 €5 back for each €.
  • 2014/03/29. Botin maintains €3bi profit forecast for Spain alone in 2016 (EN) and (EN)
  • 2014/03/28. General Assembly. Speech of BotinSpeech of MarinPress release. Then the 2013 annual report which is the presentation document for the shareholders before the meeting.
    The only resolution that matters is the approval of €0.6 dividend for FY 2014 in 4 scrips. The question is: more or less than 95% positive votes?
    CNMV filing is done. Seems everything was approved but w/o percentages available yet (EN)
    Item 5: Authorize repurchase of 10% of shares for 5 years (and cancel 2010 similar authorization)
    Item 8: Authorize issue 1bi new shares for 1 year
    Item 9: Authorize issue of 25% additional capital (2.9bi shares) for 3 years (and cancel last year similar authorization)
    Item 10: Authorize 4 more dividend scrips (The last one of FY 2013, then 3 for FY 2014, but probably as an error, Item 10.B is not allocated to FY 2014)
  • 2014/03/26. Morgan Stanley conference presentation by the CEO (EN)
    3 main subjects: Business model (very clean presentation), What will be done to improve ROE, Growth. However as usual no guidance in numbers
  • 2014/03/25. "Santander advance": A global push to grow lending for SME.
    Objective is to grow SME lending by 10% in 2014, includes €30bi new loans in Spain only (EN) [Thanks to Raivis]
    On April 3rd, presentation of the push to 10k SME across Spain, broadcasted in the 4k Spanish branches (ES)
    On April 22th, other banks doing the same (reuters)
    On April 30th, BBVA €100bi credit in 2014, 70% for companies (ES)
  • 2014/03/19. Resolutions to be voted on March 28th General Assembly (EN)
    This includes the authorization to repurchase up to 10% of the shares for 5 years (Item 5)
    Probably not very relevant: the same authorization was voted in June 2010 (source: page 63 of  2013 annual report)
  • 2014/03/04. Worldwide free cash withdrawals for Select customers (EN)
  • 2014/02/24/ Official notice for next General Assembly on March 28th (EN)
    There is for a the time the possibility to vote remotely through Android or Apple mobile as described here (ES)
  • 2014/02/07. New Fixed-Income presentation on corporate site (EN)
    Definitively an excellent presentation of the current group status. However, there is 0 new information in comparison to previous presentations. Outlook sections are especially non-consistent which by itself is ... consistent. 
  • 2014/01/30. Botin's speech press release (EN)
    Proposal in coming shareholder General Assembly (March 28th) will be to keep dividend at €0.60 in FY 2014, in 4 installments, ALL in the form of scrip!
    Here the speech itself (EN) and finally cincodias.com (ES) including the question about resignation in Oct at age of 80.
    Answer: No
  • 2014/01/30. Q4 results (EN)
  • 2013/12/27. Microbranches in China (EN) (2011), agrosantander in Spain (2000 micro branches) (ES) (2013), opening of 1st mircrobranch in Sao Paulo favela (PT) (2013)
    Reuse of best practices between countries
  • 2013/12/15. Santander strategy (ES)
    This elconfidencial.es article is so interesting that it is detailed in a separate post 
  • 2013/11/20. Funds management in London. Not anymore for sale (ES)
  • 2013/11/11. The funds management subsidiaries to be based in London. Some news about UK IPO (2014?). (ES)
  • 2013/10/10. Mega branches. Significant commercial change. (ES)
    Santander has currently 1 branch for 9500 customers, in all coutries, somewhat higher in UK
  • 2012/07/01. Best bank 2012. (Euromoney - EN)

Others

  • 2014/11/21. Former Icelandic bank CEO gets 1 year jail for 2008 crisis (zerohedge)
  • 2014/11/14. Ana Botin dissolves the international advisory board (reuters)
  • 2014/11/03. Rules for derivatives to change on Jan 2015. Santander is not part of the agreement (FR)
    Only the usual (fined banks): JPM, MS, DB, BNP, CS, C, GS, RBS, Barclays, UBS,,... are part of the agreement.

Rating agencies

  • 2015/09/07. S&P upgrades Santander to A- stable from BBB+ (communicate)
  • 2015/06/18. Moody's ups Santander to A3 (elconfidencial - ES)
  • 2014/09/30. S&P downgrades preferred stocks and other capital instruments by one level (communicate - EN)
    However Santander's situation has and continues to improve. Help to financial markets for future coco emissions?
  • 2014/07/16. The cost of downgrading USA (zerohedge)
  • 2014/07/14. Moody's keeps negative outlook on Spanish bank (ES)
  • 2014/06/04; S&P upgrades Santander to BBB+ from BBB (ES) and (ES)
  • 2014/05/30. Fitch upgrades Santander to A- from BBB+ (EN)
  • 2014/05/23. S&P ups Spain to BBB stable from BBB- (ES)
    In Feb Moody's did it, April Fitch
  • 2014/03/04. Moody's ups Santander to Baa1 from Baa2 (ES) and here detail per debt category (EN)
  • 2014/02/11. Fitch: Santander is the EU bank most exposed to EM fragility (EN)
    370% of Fitch core capital (whatever Fitch capital means)!
    This is boolshit: with local capital and liquidity, exposure is mainly limited to BRL-EUR exchange rate when consolidating local results. Amounts in local currency matter as well; but they are not bad.
    Q4 had an interesting news: Group is hedging 
    excess local capital against exchange rate movements.
  • 2014/02/11. Moody's ups Santander from Baa2 negative to stable (ES) or (ES)
    If ridiculous was a killer, they would already be...
    Said in another way: There IS a problem somewhere when 10Y bond yield varies from 7.6% to 3.6% at same rating.
  • 2013/11/22. S&P puts Santander on positive watch (ES)
  • Agency changed methodology for link between sovereign rating and corporate rating. Corporate can be rated up to 2 levels above sovereign rating, from 1 previously.
  • 2013/11/09. Fitch upgrades rating to BBB+ stable from negative outlook. (ES)

Articles

  • 2015/09/02. Reasons for weak share prices (elconfidencial - ES)
    This is an interesting article about why SAN has recently behaved worst than e.g. BBVA
    1. Brazil
    2. Cost of 1/2/3 in Spain
    3. Doubt 1/2/3 will succeed in Spain
  • 2014/11/22. BBVA capital increase, impacts on Santander (ES)
    A very interesting article by Eduardo Segovia. But this time I disagree on several points. Will detail in a post but only this Sunday.
  • 2014/08/27. Positive article in UK finance.
    Heavy focus on UK situation, which is interesting. Several points are, I think, incorrect:
    (1) "After the financial crisis, it shocked markets with a ?7.2bn rights issue." The only capital increases (since 2007) were in 2008, 1.6bi new shares for the ABN Amro operation and in 2008 also 141mi for Alliance and Leicester acquisition in UK (aside the scrips and conversion of preferred shares)
    (2) Of course dividend to be cut, next year, the same unrealized forecast for years.
  • 2014/08/11. Nice article: Stress tests will trigger consolidation in the EU banking sector with Santander on the buying side (ES)
  • 2014/07/10. A typical useless coverage of Santander in US economic press (EN): Banco Santander announces special dividend of $0.20
    No, it is no special. It occurs every 3 months. And btw announcement was done on June 2nd. And of course the usual informative "7,884,761 shares traded" missing that around 50mi shares are traded daily in IBEX. 
  • 2014/06/26. SA. "Santander looks pricey... (EN)
    Negative article, but in my opinion misinformed, as detailed by the comments I made in the article.
    Author has written 877 pro SA articles (1321 total articles). No meat, simply text around bloomberg. Challenge what author says, and he disappears. Pro article due to redaction skills.
    I commented the same way in Seeakingalpha and guess what?. Post censored (deleted)
  • 2014/06/11. Motley: "Why Santander SA plc is exceptional value for money" (EN)
    Positive, but based on analyst estimates; For example analysts estimate for 2014 dividend is €0.577. Conclusion some analysts cannot read (2014 General Assembly documents): 2014 dividend will be €0.6.
  • 2014/04/24. Finally a negative article about Santander in Motley (EN). Three main risks: (a) EM market exposure, (b) capital deficit, (c) EU back to crisis. Furthermore (d) 2014 earnings up only 26% against 2013.
    Personal opinion is (a) EM situation in particular Brazil is not bad, (b) in fact a capital surplus of €25bi in 2014, (c) Why not? and then back to € end?, (d) will be not far from 40%.
  • 2014/04/17. Motley: Does Banco Santander SA pass my triple-yield test (EN)
    Congrats to the author to be able to correctly compute DY at 8.7%. That is a rarity in the anglo-saxon press. But when he explains DY is going lower because of strong GBP, he is wrong. DY is going down because share is going up.
  • 2014/04/09. Motley: Can Santander make GBP 8bi profit? (EN)
    Verdict: No.
    I think it is possible by 2016 for 2 reasons: (1) acquisition since 2008 in acquisition tab (2) capital surplus allowing further growth (capital tab)
  • 2014/04/07. A grocery level opinion about SAN (EN)
  • 2014/02/25. Motley: Why SAN is on my buy list (EN)
  • 2014/02/20. IMF report on Spanish banks (EN)
  • 2014/02/17. Motley: 3 exceptional reasons to buy Santander (EN)
    However article says 2014 dividend at €0.5. Will be decided on March 28th and will be €0.6
  • 2014/02/15. Article to interpret Cortes Ingles acquisition and negotiations for Eurohypo (ES)
  • 2014/01/11. SA news about SCUSA IPO. Interesting comments (EN)
  • 2014/01/07. Europe's problems still not nowhere to be solved (EN)
    A negative article. Some elements of the negative thesis, but not focused on SAN. A logorrhea.
  • 2014/01/06. Yet another positive article on SA (EN)
    But in my opinion misses the fact that capital (and not liquidity) is key to be able to take advantage of the BIS III (and EZ banking union) opportunities.
  • 2014/01/03. Fortune's article "Spain's biggest bank is in trouble" (EN)
    That article is so bad that it is detailed in a separate post.
  • 2013/12/31. A bullish article from Motley fool with a target price of €13.4 (EN)
  • 2013/12/27. 2 UK-US bullish articles on Santander: Motley fool (EN) and seekingalpha (EN).
  • 2013/12/18. A positive view from UK (Motley Fool) (EN).
  • 2013/12/10. An innocent (but honest) article about Santander (EN)
    Related to Bank of Shangai move: "it seems a miracle that Spanish and ECB regulators would even allow such a transaction to occur".  It could also indicate how badly the US press is evaluating SAN situation

Shareholders

  • 2015/02/07. Shares by Botin family members (ES) (Communicate - EN)
  • 2014/06/03. Yesterday 19k call contracts traded, 200 puts (EN)
  • 2014/04/08. No short interest in SAN, was 0.2% since 09/2013 (ES)
  • 2014/02/27. US funds accelerate purchases of Spanish banks (ES)
    Blackrock has 2.2% of SAN, Vanguard 1.6% (+7.6mi shares this year)
  • 2014/02/17. Today, trading volume in Madrid was 17.8mi shares against a 3-months average of 51.4mi (from investing.com). Reason: US off for Presidential day's bank holiday. 2/3 of the Madrid liquidity comes from the US (and Madrid is 90% of Santander trading). I wonder what proportion of Santander total shares are not held for very LT
  • 2013/11/19. 0.20% short interest on Santander, stable. (ES)
  • 2013/10/21. 0.41% short interest on Santander, growing. (ES)
  • 2013/10/02. Villa Mir acquires 0.24% of SAN capital (ES)
  • 2013/09/17. Santander buys 0.465% of own shares to reach 0.67% (ES) (ES)
  • 2013/06/14. BlackRock has 1.41% of SAN capital (ES)
  • 2013/05/07. 0.51% short interest on Santander, down from 0.76% (ES)
  • 2013/04/23. 0.76% short interest on Santander, up from 0.21% (ES)
  • 2013/04/09. 0.21% short interest on Santander, up from 0% (ES)

Investments

  • 2015/09/14. Santander buys 13.8% of Metroveca from Sabadell and owns 72% (elconfidencial - ES)
    Also discussion with CNMV to revaluate the purchase from Bankia at net book value.
  • 2015/01/19. 2nd debt restructuring for Metroveca. (ES)
    Amount of €700mi. Out of Spain creditors give up 25%. The 75% left are paid with a €525mi loan from Spanish banks, to be converted into capital
  • 2015/01/01. Two more big debt restructurings. Merlin properties involves Santander (among other banks) in a €1bi loan to repay more expensive loans (reuters) (CNMV -ES), San Jose makes a debt to capital operation but does not involve Santander(ES)
  • 2014/12/24. Santander converts Banif Inmobiliaro into another form (SII - real estate investing company)), first step to become a socomi (SOCOMI - ES) that allows buying debt. (ES)
  • 2014/12/23. Santander buys 19.07% of Metrovacesa from Bankia for €99mi (ES)
    Bankia got these shares in June from debt conversion (see below)
  • 2014/12/23. Santander creates an investment fund in green energy with two Canadese pension funds (ES) (bloomberg)
  • 2014/12/23. Conversion of debt to capital gives Santander 8.56% of NH hoteles (ES) (reuters)
    2nd such operation in 2 days.
    The big picture is here. Key characteristics is that only part of the outstanding debt is converted into capital. The debt saldo becomes performing immediatly.
  • 2014/12/22. Part of Martinsa's debt converted in capital. €3.5bi in debt down to €1.2bi, with the banks getting 70% of the company capital (ES)
  • 2014/06/02. Debt restructuction of Metrovacesa (ES)
    Debt was refinanced in 2011. Banks hold all capital (Santander has 36%). Debt owner hedge funds accept a 20% discount: 9% as lower value (€170mi) and 11% as capital (€200mi)

Acquisitions

  • 2015/08/03. Bradesco gets HSBC Brasil for R$17.6bn (infomoney - PT)
  • 2015/07/03. Santander buys 9.68% of SCUSA for $982mi (cincodias) (communicate)
    Replace CEO.
    -8bpp group capital impact
  • 2015/06/02. Santander has made an offer to acquire HSBC Brasil (850 branches) infomoney - PT). Interesting article from elconfidencial
  • 2015/04/23. Communicate about Pioneer preliminary agreement
  • 2015/04/18. Update about Unicredit AM deal (FT)
    Exclusion of US in Santander part is very interesting.
  • 2015/03/20. Santander has presented its offer to buy Novo Banco in Portugal (ES) (reuters)
  • 2015/03/16. Santander puts for sale Grupo Konecta (ES)
    Call centers in Spain, 23k employees. Santander owns 53% of the shares
  • 2015/02/05. JV with PSA in France has started operations (reuters
  • 2015/01/24. Rumors of acquisition in Poland: Alior bank (ES) (reuters)
  • 2015/01/20. 17 groups interested in Novo Banco, including Santander (ES)
    The article has a nice overview of that bank
  • 2015/01/14. More rumors about Postbank (reuters)
  • 2014/12/23. Santander is favourite for Novo Banco privatization in Portugal (ES)
    Target date is June 2015. But Santander Totta has already 11% market share. ex-BES has 18%. Perhaps combination is too big.
    Interest confirmed by Santander Totta on Dec 24th (ES)
  • 2014/12/19. Rumors about DB selling Postbank in Germany, with Santander as potential buyer (reuters)
    I set a (weak) link to slide 20 of Dec 5th presentation where one core country was missing in the commercial objectives: Germany
    It is potentially a big deal: €10bi. Should it go through, my guess is that the acquisition will happen without adhoc capital increase, simply using the capital excess generated through dividend scrips. It will also extend for at least 6 quarters the utilization of dividend scrips as best way to raise capital (keep shareholder structure untouched, no discount, tax friendly)
    In a communicate Santander confirmed to have made an offer (PT) in 2008!
    Seems the 2nd round started.
    Finally:
    - News that started the rumor is here (DE),
    - Q3 2014 Postbank financial statements (EN). €156bi in assets.
  • 2014/12/11. Rumors of SCUSA repuchase (bloomberg), negated by the company (reuters)
    Very suspicious rumor.
  • 2014/12/04. Santander buys 19% of Metrovacesa for about €100mi (ES)
    After the operation, SAN owns 55.8%. Real estate company.
  • 2014/11/27. Santander buys 5% of Monetize in UK for GBP 33mi (ES) (Press release)
  • 2014/11/26. Mexico buys $300mi consumer loans from Scitiabank (reuters)
  • 2014/11/17. Santander is looking at Banca Carige in Italy (ES)
  • 2014/11/12. Some rumors around Monte dei Paschi (reuters)
    In Q3 Q&A, Marin confirmed Santander is not interested.
  • 2014/11/12. Deal with Unicredit in AM expect beginning of December (reuters)
  • 2014/10/01. BES available for sale in Portugal (since mid July, see below) (reuters)
  • 2014/10/01. Selling 2% of the polish subsidiary (reuters) for $227mi (bloomberg)
    To reach 30% of free float as asked by the regulator.
  • 2014/09/24. Santander's communicate about Unicredit (EN)
  • 2014/09/23. And finally Unicredit covered in Spanish press, much more reliable (ES) (ES)
    Target date end of November. Objective: A big asset management entity with 1/3 Santander, 1/3 Unicredit, 1/3 Warburg Pincus + General Atlantic.
    There is the Italian touch: technically not an exclusive negotiation but Unicredit will only speak with Santander. 
  • 2014/09/17. Update on Unicredit AM (reuters). Santander is one of the 2 strongest contenders. On Sep 23th, new update from reuters and bloomberg
  • 2014/09/16. Santander buys Carfinco in Canada for €210mi (Press release) (reuters) (bloomberg)
  • 2014/09/08. Bid for 50% of Unicredit AM (reuters) (IT)
  • 2014/08/20. Santander Totta to sell 51% of its insurance business to Aegon (ES)
  • 2014/08/11. Santander to buy bank BHP in Poland? (owned by General Electric (bloomberg)
  • 2014/08/05. Santander (BBVA, Sabadell) studies acquisition of Banco Espirito Santo (ES)
    The good bank, €70bi of assets.
  • 2014/07/31. JV with Banco Bonsucesso (bloomberg)
    $205mi as investment from SAN, will hold 60% of the entity.
  • 2014/07/29. A possible JV in Brazil with Bonsucesso (reuters)
  • 2014/07/29. Botin about acquisitions (ES)
  • 2014/07/21. BBVA wins Cataluyna bank (ES) (ES)
    Big surprise
    All history moved to the dedicated post 
    and with one day delay the reuters coverage (one day is not that bad)
    Finally nice debriefing here (ES)
  • 2014/07/19. Possible action in Portugal (bloomberg)
  • 2014/07/10. Signing of the binding framework agreement between PSA and SCF (EN
  • 2014/07/10. Santander sells 51% of Consumer Finance insurance to CNP (EN)
    Completion by end of 2014. Net capital gain of €250mi
  • 2014/06/30. Santander in talks to sell 51% of Consumer Finance insurance (reuters)
  • 2014/06/25. Santander transfers Allfunds to Santander Asset Mgt (ES)
    $35bi under management. SAN holds 50% of Allfunds. Participation goes to 25% as Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic hold 50% of Santander Assets Mgt. No target date announced
  • 2014/06/23. Santander buys GE money business in Sweden, Denmark, Norway (ES) (communicate)
    €2.35bi loan portfolio, price: €700mi, completion H2 2014, 8bpp impact on capital (so no new shares)
    This is a significant acquisition for the LT: Santander uses Consumer Finance to learn a market with low investment. This acquisition adds CF activity in the 3 Scandinavic countries, and is in addition to the PSA financing deal (Peugeot/Citroen sells cars in these countries). After a market is understood, Santander starts a commercial bank. This is the situation in Germany, US (out of North-East), Austria and possibly China.
  • 2014/06/19. 50% of custody business (in Spain, Brazil and Mexico) sold to Warburg Pincus and Temasek (reuters) (communicate) (ES)
    Positive impact on capital ratio of 12bpp? (EN)
    Net capital gain of €410mi. Completion expected for Q4 2014. Temasek is based in Singapore.
  • 2014/06/18. Santander Totta (Portugal) looking at loan book of Barclays and BBVA in Portugal (reuters)
    Also includes some guidance about Santander Totta.
  • 2014/06/15. Rumours of JV in Brazil with Banco Bonsuccesso (EN)
  • 2014/06/05. Santander and Commerzbank - rumors (EN), (EN) and (EN)
    Santander's growth by M&A makes maximum sense in Germany, whatever the acquired bank.
    On 4-traders some more information: German government will decide at the earliest in Oct 2014, after stress tests results are known
    On 2014/08/20: Berlin not sell before 2016 (reuters)
  • 2014/05/20. Lone Star and JPM win Eurohypo (ES) and (ES)
    €3.5bi
  • 2014/05/14. 50% of Global Custody and Securities Services unit to be sold (EN)
    For €500mi?
    It is the logical next step after the 50-50 JV for Asset mgt and the move of AM to London. Target is to grow that business with Warburg Pincus 
  • 2014/05/07. Five final bids for Eurohyp (EN)
  • 2014/04/29. OPA on 25% of Santander Brasil (not owned by the group) (EN) (reuters)
    Financed by new shares, but group EPS positive from day 1 (even with the dilution). That is a €4.7bi operation!
    On June 14th: Rotchild estimates SANB11 price 37% lower than offer (EN)
  • 2014/04/21. Update about Eurohypo (ES)
  • 2014/04/07. Santander Brazil buys GetNet for BRL 1.1bi (€350mi) (EN)
    Completion expected in H2 2014.
    On Mai 19th: Approval of the operation by BR authorities (PT)
  • 2014/04/04. Santander to bid for IKB in Germany? (EN)
  • 2014/04/02. Santander buying BNP's private bank in Miami, US? (EN)
  • 2014/03/18. Update about Eurohypo (EN). Bids up to €3bi
  • 2014/03/03. Santander together with Apollo has made a bid for Eurohypo (ES).
  • 2014/02/19. Communicate about PSA (EN)
    In Europe, for the new loans, target date H2 2015, at local level, 50-50.
  • 2014/02/17. More details about PSA financing (ES)
    Feb 19th date held, price between €1-1.4bi for 50%
    H1 2013: loan book of €22.3bi, revenue €460mi (6 months), net earnings €150mi (6 months) site is here
  • 2014/02/17. Bankia sales (ES)
    de Guindos wants SAN to buy Bankia shares. Botin does not want.
  • 2014/02/13. Deal with PSA financing for a 50-50 JV next Wednesday? (EN)
  • 2014/02/12. Santander together with Apollo to bid to EuroHypo assets in Spain (ES)
    €5bi ; 34% of which non performing (for Apollo)
  • 2014/02/05. Rumors of an acquisition in Austria (EN)
    April 8th: denied by Santander (EN)
  • 2014/01/31. Rumors of an acquisition in Germany (EN)
  • 2014/01/23. SCUSA IPO completed, priced at $24 (EN)
    10 times oversubscribed, capital gain of €740mi, group still has 60.7% of the shares (sold a 4% stake, the bulk was sold by other shareholders)
    More importantly, Santander announced a capital increase of up to $2bi of Santander Holdings USA, to support growth in the country. Local acquisition? Increase of ex-Sovereign capital?
    Ticker is NYSE:SC. up 5% in 1st trading day.
  • 2014/01/22. SCUSA IPO prices up to $24-$25. Number of shares increased to 75mi (EN, in comments) or here (ES)
    The funny stuff is that Santander intends to pay a $0.15 dividend each quarter for the SCUSA shares. Conclusion is simple: Santander values its own shares at €25.
  • 2014/01/09. Conditions for SCUSA OPA filled in the US (ES) (EN)
    40% of the shares, price between $22 and $24, Total amount $1.5bi-$1.8bi. No date.
    And more information in this post (ES)
    After the operation SAN will keep 60.74% from 64.85% today.
  • 2014/01/04. Altamira sale numbers (EN)
    Price: €664mi, Net capital gain: €385mi.  Activity: Collection of bad loans, Sale or rent of foreclosed real estate.
  • 2013/12/31. Banesco (Venezuelan bank) wins NCG at 1st round (ES) or here (ES)
    Santander made a bid on 2012/12/16. More details in separate post
  • 2013/12/10. Santander buys 8% of Bank of Shangai for €470mi (ES)
  • 2013/12/05. BNP gets BGZ in Poland (EN)
  • 2013/11/21. Real estate arm in Spain sold to Apollo for 700mi (ES). 188 employees transferred (ES)
  • 2013/12/06. Deal to include the management for 10 years of the foreclosed real estate and all loans to real estate companies. €25bi. 500 employees (ES)
  • 2013/11/08. Santander selling real estate arm in Spain (ES)
  • 2013/11/15. News about PSA bank (EN)
    Target date Q1 2014. 23bi loan book, FR (37.5%), DE (12.4%), UK (12.1%), ES (8%), IT (7.4%), BR (5%), BE (5%)
  • 2013/10/24. Santander confirms Poland's BGZ interest, and denies Commerzbank (EN)
  • 2013/10/18. Rumors about PSA financing (EN)
  • 2013/10/07. Santander Consumer finance to acquire 51% of Cortes Ingles financing arm. Completion in Q1 2014 (EN). Here a more detailed news (ES)
    140mi, 6.6bi loan book, 10.5mi store cards.
    First acquisition in Spain since 1999.
  • 2013/10/04. Santander trying to acquire BGZ in Poland (EN)
  • 2013/06/14. Acquisition, €37mi, from ING, Mexico, mortgages (ES)
    Is this linked to the €100mi provisions SAN took in Mexico Q3 2013?
  • 2013/05/15. Santander acquires 20% of Bank of Beijing Consumer finance (EN). €38mi
  • 2013/05/05. Sell 50% of Asset Managment to Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic (ES)
    Gain of €700mi will be booked in Q4 2013.
  • 2013/01/15. JV in car loans with Anhui Jianghuai Automobile in China. Initial capital of €62mi. Santander has 50%. (EN)

Regulation

  • 2015/11/05. G-SIB 2015. Santander stays at 1% additional capital (FSB)
  • 2015/10/15. BCE limits cash dividend to 25% of net earnings when low capital ratio (10%) (cincodias - ES)
  • 2015/09/28. DTA is "no state aid" final (cincodias - ES)
  • 2015/09/11. Last Basel draft about Total Loss Absorption buffer handles groups organized in subsidiaries (like Santader) the same way as integrated entities (cincodias - ES)
  • 2015/09/08. Some news about RWA rules made the same across banks supervised by the BCE (cincodias - ES)
    And as bonus, some data from last JPM analyst report about Santander
  • 2015/08/31. DTA is no public help (elconfidencial - ES
  • 2015/06/15. Update on ECB and Comission investigation about DTA (cincodias - ES)
  • 2015/04/08. EC investigates Spanish 2013 DTA rules to check whether they are public help (cincodias - ES)
  • 2015/01/14. OMT sovereign bonds buying rules legal (ES) (zerohedge)
  • 2014/12/19. Efforts by ECB to make sovereign bonds purchase acceptable by Germany (ES)
  • 2014/11/11. FSB proposal with a new capital buffer for G-SIB: TLAC (Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (ES) (bloomberg)
    Capacity to absorb 16-20% of RWA. Open for comments to Feb 2nd.
    The 2014 G-SIB list was published on Nov 6th (EN). Santander stays in the lowest risk bucket. (1% extra capital). (bloomberg)
  • 2014/11/07. European court rejects Commission decision to consider goodwill fiscal advantage in Spain as state aid (ES) (bloomberg)
    Abbey purchase in 2004 had €10bi as goodwill 
  • 2014/11/03. Some hints about what could be the consequences of ECB as supervisor (ES
  • 2014/10/23. On No 4th, ECB becomes supervisor and intends to gain market confidence (ES):
    Reduction of dividend, veto of acquisitions, requirements of disinvestment, more capital (coco), more provisions.
    Dividend as scrip is a way to raise capital, we will see.
  • 2014/10/10. More regulation on Coco? (reuters)
  • 2014/08/29. Spain limits DTA yearly utilization to 60% of taxable income (ES)
  • 2014/05/19. ECB on June 5th???: Main rate at 0.1%, bank deposits at -0.1%, no asset purchases (EN).
    On June 5th, zerohedge has a nice article. ECB measures
  • 2014/04/29. YAST (Yet Another Stress Test) in UK above the ECB one (EN)
  • 2014/04/15. Banking union last 3 texts approved by EU parliament (FR)
    Bail-in, resolution funds, €100k deposit protection.
  • 2014/04/02. Tax Tobin ON within 6 months in 11 EU countries (ES) and (ES)
    0.1% for shares, 0.01% for derivatives, €35bi per year.Of course, no such tax in UK (and Holland) (ES)On April 30th: European court turns down UK trying to stop the tax (ES)
  • 2014/03/25. Bundesbank does not discard negative interest rates and asset purchases (ES)
    Surprising. Euro too high? Deflation risk? Be ready in case it is needed?
  • 2014/03/18. Rules to classify refinanced loans as substandard or NPL softened in Spain (ES)
  • 2014/03/12. The €1.5bi Coco issued last week by Santander will be considered in Oct 2014 stress tests (ES)
  • 2014/03/07. Significant changes in the Spanish rules linked to company debt (ES) and (ES)
    As a result, as much as €150bi of non performing or refinanced loans can be converted by the banks as capital (of the ex-debtors). Banks can wait with such an investment. Companies with cash flow problems can't. In my own opinion a clear defense against external distressed  investment money.
    March 18th: When a bank transforms a debt into capital, the related provisions can be released immediately (ES)
  • 2014/02/18. Overview of the draft law to transpose in Spain the CRD IV and selection of options of CRR (EN)
    BIS III is implemented at EU level by CRD IV and CRR. CRD IV needs to be transposed in each country by a local law. As CRD IV application started Jan 2014, urgent points have been detailed in a 2013 Spanish law. The process here is a full implementation of the CRD IV in the Spain. In particular it covers the additional capital buffers. No big surprise: Santander will have a 1% capital surcharge for being a low risk G-SIFI, starting in 2016 (phase in), and a 2.5% capital conservation buffer also starting 2016 (all banks).It is probably only after that law is published that Santander will have the elements to provide a precise future capital situation. However still outstanding for 2014 are the uniformized RWA calculation rules for the banks under ECB supervision.
  • 2014/01/29. No deposit money for derivatives financing (ES)
    It is a project at EU level, to be discussed H2 2014
  • 2014/01/22. The long memory of the Spanish government (ES)
    BBVA refused to enter in the Spanish bad bank capital. Spain is (re)building the deposit guarantee fund with a 0.3% levy on bank deposits balance at end of 2012. The capital brought to the bad bank capital is deductible at 30% for the 1st installment (40%) of this levy, to be paid this week. As a result, BBVA has to pay €120mi whilst Santander's amount is €21mi.   
  • 2014/01/20. Public debt considered in stress tests, and consuming capital (ES) or more interesting (ES)
    Depending on the country rating, bad news.
  • 2014/01/14. BdE wants to limit 2013 benefits to build excess provisions ("Everything that is possible") (ES)
    In preparation of the stress tests: Italy and France will get some own banks suspended, and would push for some Spanish banks to have the same situation.
  • 2013/12/11. BdE links cash dividend payments in 2014 to the capital level end of 2013 (ES)
    Can only distribute what is above 9% at keydate 2013/12/31. Santander end of Q3 2013 is at 11.53%
  • 2013/12/06. New LTRO? (ES)
    Yesterday Draghi left the door open for a new LTRO operation. BUT he would ensure that the money is utilized for loans and not for buying government bonds, blocking the easy money used by many banks. Santander is not concerned by the problem: The LTRO money they took has mainly been paid back. It was used as an (expensive) liquidity insurance: parked back at ECB.
  • 2013/12/06. EBA could exclude covered bonds from liquidity requirements (ES)
    €400bi such bonds in Spain, €500bi in Germany. UK is pushing for that, the rest is scrambling.
    UK is very direct on topics related to the City. For example, in 2008 they put Iceland as terrorist state to pressure the country to make a "good" local bank bailout (
    EN)
  • 2013/11/29. Some regulation activity by BdE on the generic provisions linked to Guindos I&II decrees (ES)
    Guindos I forced 7% provisions on performing loans to real estate companies.
    Guindos II increased this to 30%.
    Seems these provisions would not be allowed to be released in 2014.
  • 2013/11/24. Draghi rejected proposals to consider government debt as corporate debt (with risk and capital needs) (EN)
    "for revision"
    And a few days later (2013/12/12), the opposite version from another ECB guy: (ES)
  • 2013/11/20. ECB meeting including Spanish banks (ES)
    Interesting 1st hand report. Javier Marin question to Draghi: "destino del exceso de provisiones"
  • 2013/11/19. ECB supervision to start 2014/11/04. (ES)
  • 2013/11/19. Public debt to have non zero risk? (ES)
  • 2013/11/11. FSB additional capital yearly update for global SIFI (EN)
    Only 29 such banks. JPM and HSBC win with 2.5% surcharge. Santander is in lowest bracket with 1% surcharge
  • 2013/09/25. EU banks need 70bi extra capital for BIS III as per EBA (ES)
  • 2013/06/06. France and Italy braking in front of ECb stress tests (ES)

Fair markets?

  • 2014/04/28. GS: Strong sell treasury bonds. (EN)
    Last strong sell was for gold, and the quarter after GS itself was biggest gold buyer...
  • 2014/04/08. Santander fined for $200mi? (EN)
    In case you check google financials at this key date, the 3rd news you see is $200mi fine in UK. It is wrong information. $20mi is the correct amount.
  • 2013/10/13. The typical boolshit Anglo-saxon coverage of capital needs by reuters (EN)
  • 2013/06/15. The EU governments alliance to protect their companies against US (ES)
  • 2013/06/11. Spain is officially bankrupt, says "The Telegraph" (ES) and some answer (ES)
    When will end the Spain-England war that started with Philip II and Elisabeth I?
  • 2012/10/12. Private equity funds have $200bi in dry powder (ES)
    They have my "sincere" compassion.
  • 2012/08/14. Hedge funds capitulating (ES)
    Super Draghi
  • 2012/08/13. Hedge funds have €60bi on wait for EU fire sales. (EN)
    This is one of my favorite article!
  • 2012/08/13. Paul Stinger. Europe is taking the road to corruption and poverty (PT)
    That guy was deeply disappointed by the effects of Draghi speech in July 2012. Funny read and one of my favorite article !

Analysts

  • 2015/01/08. JPM negative on Spanish banks because of margin pressures (ES)
  • 2014/10/17. Berenberg has a target price of €5.4 (ES
  • 2014/06/02. SG ups target from to €7 from €6.45. Shares trades at €7.5 (ES)
    Average target price is €6.7. 16% Buy, 52% Hold, 33% Sell 
  • 2014//05/05. JPM fires their analyst Jaime Becerill, responsible for EU banks (ES)
    Under pressure of the Spanish banks. The report he made one year ago about Santander was a masterwork of bad faith
  • 2014/04/17. Citi ups target price to €6.8 from €6.5, neutral (ES)
  • 2014/04/05. UBS ups target price to €7.3 from 7.0, neutral (ES)
  • 2014/04/03. Overview of analysts recommendations and target prices, from Santander site, kept up to date (EN)
    Choose the one you like. It goes from €4.3 to €8.
  • 2014/03/31. DB report on Spanish banks (ES) or (ES)
    For Santander: Hold (from Sell), target price €6.2 (up 18.3%). Inconsistent: Hold that share, it will fall by 10% (share closed at €6.92 today). 
  • 2014/03/10. JPM on Spanish banks (ES) and (ES)
    For Santander: neutral, target price €6.5 from 5.86. Dividend 2015: 0.45; 2016: 0.31.
    But still Becerill covering Santander and that analyst is not trustable.
  • 2014/02/25. Funny spread of analysts (but not related to Santander) (PT)
    Q4 2013 estimates for Petrobras varies 400% between the most optimistic (BTG) and the most pessimistic (UBS)
  • 2014/02/01. Berenberg bank reiterates Sell (EN)
  • 2014/01/22. UBS ups target price to €7 (from €6), hold
  • 2014/01/13. Barclays ups target price to €5.3 (from 5.15), Sell, €4.2bi capital shortfall (EN)
  • 2013/11/29. GS ups target price 11% to €11.95 (ES)
    Current share price €6.62. GS puts a target price of €11.95. But does not say Buy. This is not coherent.
    Was probably a typo for the 11.95. Here is a new notice with target price at €7.5 (
    ES)
  • 2013/09/18. GS says big Spanish banks need at least 4bi extra capital due to EZ stress tests (ES)
  • 2013/06/27. Citi raises Spanish banking sector from underperform to neutral (ES)
  • 2013/06/27. ACF says as JPM: more capital needed (ES)
  • 2013/07/03. An overview of the big US analyst companies about the Spanish banks (ES)
    Some differences...
  • 2013/07/27. A few days after Becerril report, 2 JPM managers presented their apologies to Marin (ES).
    I have read that report, and it is not serious.
  • 2013/06/13. JPM report (ES) Underweight (from hold), €4.34 (from €5.8) by Jaime Becerril.
  • 2013/02/01. Overview of analysts moves near Jan 2013 (ES)
    • Exane BNP, Sell, target price up 14% to €4.9
    • N+1, hold, €6.7
    • Keefe, Bruyette & Wood, hold, €7 up from 6.7
    • S&P Capital: Sell, €5.2 up from 4.8
    • Carax-Alpha Value: Buy, €9.97 up from 9.93
    • Nomura: Sell, €5.5 down from 5.8

      These moves are also called "The mystery of the analysts". Working on the same data, and using brains working in similar way, they reach a wide range of results. 

Spain

  • 2015/11/05. Till end of October, 675k 1|2|3 accounts, including 150k new customers (cincodias)
  • 2015/06/22. BBV counters 1|2|3 account with its own commercial offer (cincodias - ES)
  • 2015/03/16. Banco Madrid liquidated (ES)(ES)
    Liquidity crash caused by US going after the controlling entity BPA for money laundering.
    300 employees, 78k customers, branches closed, deposits up to €100k (but currently blocked)
  • 2015/02/24. €668mi bond issued in Spain by the PSA-SC JV (ES)
    Secured by car loans, as a way to assume own liquidity.
  • 2014/11/28. Commercial push in Cataluyna: deposits get 1.75%. (ES)
    Consequence of BBVA having won Cataluyna bank.
    Some reactions (ES)
  • 2014/10/07. Interests on 3 months deposit at 0.5%. (4% 2 years ago) (ES)
  • 2014/10/01. The ongoing (see April 2014) highway story (reuters)
  • 2014/09/25. Madoff's customer heard by supreme court against Santander (ES)
  • 2014/09/16. Covered bond presentation. Gives an overview of the Spanish housing market. (EN)
  • 2014/08/27. Spanish banks selling Spanish bonds (ES)
    Bought when yield was high (7.6% for 10Y in 07/2012), selling when low (10Y at 2.14% currently).
    But not very active for Santander, only 6.62% of the Spanish margin in 2014. (45% for Sabadell and 11.34% for BBVA)
  • 2014/07/28. Buyer of 1135 Santander branches in 2007 for €2bi investigated for using black money (ES)
  • 2014/07/14. Santander to do the financial mgt of "Monte de piedad de Madrid", the oldest (created in 1702)  pawnbroker in Spain (ES)
    In 2013, 60k customers and 152k operations
  • 2014/06/27. Mortgage at euribor + 1.89% (ES)
  • 2014/06/16. Opening of an inquiry on "Valores Santander" (ES) (ES)
    Topic: selling in 2007 €7bi of risky investments without informing about the risks
  • 2014/06/13. Reorganization status in Spain (ES).
    700 branch closures as part of the merge completed in Q1. Additional 100 branches to close June 20th. 
  • 2014/06/10. Three big companies debt restructurings by summer? (ES)
    Separate post
  • 2014/05/14. €100mi loss for Santander and La Caixa reorganization (ES)
  • 2014/04/24. Deposit war end confirmation (ES)
    And that means +€0.5bi profit for Santander Spain alone, by 2016, and as I doubt a lot of time deposits are at 3 years, the bulk of that gain will occur before 2016.
  • 2014/04/24. Highways restructuring blocked (ES)
  • 2014/04/23. In 2013, Spanish banks had a tax rate of 4.95% on the €10bi profit they made because of DTA utilization (ES)
    SAN had mid 2013 €10bi DTA in Spain, effective tax rate will stay low (despite €3bi 2016 profit) for a long period.
  • 2014/04/04. Altamira sold and the power networks down (ES
  • 2014/04/01. Botin: +65% new mortgage production Q1 2014 YoY (ES)
  • 2014/03/12. Lower interests for time deposits (ES)
    For example 13 months depositi, at least €10k yields 0.85% from 1%
  • 2014/03/10. Owner of Santander headquarters in Spain files for protection from creditors (EN)
    Acquired the real estate from Santander 1 week before Lehman bankrupcy
  • 2014/02/17. Santander fined €17mi for 2007 convertible bonds (ES) and (EN)
  • 2014/01/28. Restructuration status in Spain (ES)
    2013: Most of the 700 targeted branches closed, 1500 people left.
    2014: More 1000 people to leave.
  • 2014/01/27. Report on a big Jan 17th company meeting in Spain (ES)
    Target Spanish earnings 2014 of €1.1bi and €3bi in 2016. 
  • 2014/01/03. Funds under management up 37% for Santander in Spain YoY (ES)
  • 2013/12/05. A big NPL to come for Santander from highway companies? (EN
  • 2013/11/18. Agrosantander: 2000 new selling places in rural Spain (ES)
  • 2013/11/05. Mortage NPL is the new nightmare (ES)
  • 2013/11/03. Mortage NPL growing (ES)
  • 2013/11/01. Reclassification increases NPL by 14bi in Spain (ES)
    Exercise to reclassify refinanced loans was done by Santander in Q2 2013. It did increase the NPL, but not the provisions. Around 2bi of paying loans are now classified as NPL
  • 2013/10/29. Spain lowers by 24% the capital requirements for loans to SME (ES)

UK

  • 2015/01/27. Santander UK customers get banking services at 11k post offices (reuters)
  • 2014/12.16. BoE's stress tests results (on real estate crash). (reuters)
    Santander passes (7.9% against 4.5% required). Co-operative Bank does not pass. RBS and Lloyds need authorization for dividend payments
  • 2014/09/29. New CEO is Nathan Bostock (reuters)
  • 2014/09/26. Susan Allen named managing director (reuters)
    New CEO still to come
  • 2014/07/02. Customers unable to take money at ATM (reuters)
  • 2014/06/18. Alliance between Santander UK and Funding Circle (reuters) (ES)
  • 2014/03/26. GBP 12.4mi fine for serious deficiencies advising customers (ES) (EN)
  • 2013/11/01. Santander UK issues $1.5bi bonds. $9bi as demand. Santander group keeps 45% for themself. (EN)
    Funny read
  • 2013/10/14. IPO in UK? no (ES)
  • 2013/06/06. IPO in UK? yes (EN)
  • 2012/10/15 Santander cancels RBS deal (EN)
    Deal in 2010. GBP 1.65bi. RBS is angry and wants to sue. RBS needed to 2015 to be able to extract the customer data, which allowed Santander to cancel.

Brazil

  • 2015/09/09. CEO change (elconfidencial - ES)
    Again!
  • 2015/06/04. STJ (highest court in Brazil) rules in favor of Santander against the local taxes authorities related to cofins (cincodias) (communicate - EN)
    R$4.8bn provisions net of taxes (€835mi) will be reversed in Q2
  • 2015/06/03. Santander Brasil charged illegal fees during 2008-2009 says BCB (infomoney - PT)
    Fine up to R$250k
  • 2014/10/31. Exchange offer: 13.65% (Communicate)
  • 2014/10/23. Banks trying to soften liquidity requirements (reuters)
  • 2014/10/17. As per Reuters change of the exchange ratio due to delay (reuters)
    The source of the information is the following CNMV filing (EN) of more than 300 pages, (reference paperwork for the operation).
    As far as I understand, Reuters got it wrong. No delay and no change in the ratio.
    However, and as known for several months, the dividends are considered: Since key date Oct10th, BSBR exchanger shareholders have the right to SAN dividend(s), discounted by the BSBR dividend(s), until they receive the SAN rights. This is done by adapting the exchange ratio from 0.7
  • 2014/09/18. Swap on Oct 30th (reuters) (Communicate - PT)
  • 2014/08/10. Changes in exchange offer (Communicate - PT)
    Also includes the BSBR ADR, record date Oct 10th.
    After that date, capital increase for SAN, and then exchange with ratio (0.7 SAN for each IBOV:SANB11) adjusted to consider the dividends (SAN and SANB11) to entry date.
  • 2014/07/21. Revision of the estimated gain for "poupanca" from R$442bi to R$22bi (PT)
  • 2014/05/29. Poupança end of 1980 to beginning of 1990.
    Poupança is a form of saving account in Brazil. Only financially uninformed people (the bulk of the people in Brazil) use it as its return is lower than inflation (currently 6%, with inflation at around 6.5% and some government bonds yielding 11%). It was and still is a major cheap financing source for local banks, especially for the state controlled banks: Banco do Brasil and Caixa Economica (and if you add BNDES, also state controlled, you reach 50% of total banking industry). End of the 80ies to beginning of the 90ies, the applied rules were not saver friendly. This handling was put to the highest court (STJ - Supreme Tribunal de Justicia) which ruled in favor of the savers. The estimations of the indemnifications I have read varies between R$8bi to R$1000bi. 
    Santander Brasil will be impacted, but due to the fact that Banco do Brasil and Caixa are main holders of poupança, I doubt the impact will be very significant for SANB11/BSBR: An indemnification big enough to cause a serious impact on Santander Brasil will cause bankrupcy of  both Banco do brasil and Caixa (not far of 50% of the banking industry, and state controlled)
    - 2014/05/28. STJ delaying indemnification decision: after Oct elections (PT)
    - 2014/05/23. Fitch: Judment will impact ratings (PT)
    - 2014/05/21. STJ rules in favor of the savers (PT)
  • 2014/03/21. Local stress tests results (PT)
    Long document. The results are at page 35. Not going under required capital even in the cqse of a structural crash (-2.0% GDP, 27.7% SELIC, USD/BRL 4.11) 
  • 2014/02/12. Santander microcredit 2013 at R$2.15bi: +9.5% YoY. 85% in NW of of country, 69% to women, NPL at 2.5% (PT)
  • 2014/01/07. Capital optimization (PT)
    R$1.587 dividend for each IBOV.SANB11, ex-div on 2014/01/15 morning, payment on 2014/01/29.
  • 2013/12/23. First micro branch opened in a Sao Paulo favela (PT)
    Can or can't be interesting. But I put a link to the 2000 new agro mini branches in Spain, the push to reuse best practices between countries and the focus on organic growth (in particular the negative fees in UK and UK)
  • 2013/11/18. CEO Jesus Zabalza talks. (PT)
    Loan book: +12-14% in 2014. €400mi in costs cut till 2016 (part of the €1.5bi for the group)
  • 2013/11/12. Qatar holding converts $2.7bi of bonus into Santander Brazil shares (PT)
    at a price of R$23.75 per unit. Units are quoted at R$15.25
  • 2013/09/27. Santander Brazil to optimize its capital and return R$6bi to its shareholders (75%+ in the hands of the group) (PT) (PT)
  • 2013/07/30. New Santander Brasil Chaiman, Zabalza, says he is interested in purchases (PT)
    and some overview of the GetNet acquisition 
  • 2013/07/07. Santander is the worst bank in Brazil by customer complains (PT)

Mexico

  • 2014/12/03. Santander is the biggest bank in the country based on new loans last 12 months (bloomberg)
  • 2013/12/24. Santander Mexico will pay €1bi dividend on 2013/12/27 (ES). Ex-div date was 23th Dec. Retained earnings are being distributed. After that distribution Mexico will still have 12% of CET1.
    In parallel, €1bi of subordinated debt has been issued (will serve as Tier II capital, 2.5%) (ES).
    In both cases Group share is 75%.
    I wonder how will be the accounting part. Does this mean that at group level there will be a 2nd €750mi exceptional in Q4? (there is also €700mi of capital gain due AM JV to book in Q4). 
  • 2013/11/28. Santander Mexico to optimize its capital and return 956mi to its shareholders in the form of dividend (ES)(EN)
    Official press release here. (EN)
    The reuters news contains a mistake. $1bi of subordinate debt to be issued, not €1bi.
  • 2013/11/26 Growth in Mexico (EN)
    200 new branched for the next 2 years.

US

  • 2015/03/11. Santander holdings USA failed the 2nd part of the 2015 federal reserve stress tests (zerohedge) (ES)
  • 2015/03/05. Against the rumors (of fail due to qualitative factors) Santander US passed the 2015 Fed stress tests (zerohedge).
    Next week comes a second part and there Santander is expected to fail (reuters)
  • 2015/03/02. New CEO in the US (reuters)
    Better connections with the regulators, probably the missing qualitative factor that that causes capital plan rejection.
  • 2015/02/26. SCUSA to pay $9.35mi for repossessing cars (reuters)
  • 2015/02/20. Federal reserve circus is going on (reuters)
  • 2014/12/04. Fitch to stop provide ratings for SHUSA and Santander Bank N.A. (reuters)
    I wonder why. "For business reason". Billing?On 2015/01/08, stop is effective (reuters)
    More info here
    An 2011  bloomberg article about ratings price: example around $500k to rate a $500mi bond issue. Finally there are range in Fitch terms of services: Between $1k-$750k fees for a single issue and 10k-750k for a global annual fee
  • 2014/11/20. 2 Goldman employees fired for leaking Fed information (reuters)
    One part of the information is about the reluctance of the Fed to press Goldman about a transaction involving both Santander and Goldman.
    Of course these employees were not fired for using Fed information. They were fired because they were caught using this information, a clear sign of incompetence.
  • 2014/11/18. SCUSA investigation in cincodias
  • 2014/06/19. Next circus episode about March capital plan rejection. Dividend by SHUSA or SCUSA only after federal reserve authorization (ES) (reuters) (bloomberg)
  • 2014/06/24. SHUSA gets to 2015/01/05 to presents new capital plan (reuters)
  • 2014/06/12. SCUSA communicate with modification of guidance (possibly lower growth and higher compliance costs) (EN)
  • 2014/06/02. SCUSA suspends its dividend till 2015 (ES) (SEC filing)
    Consequence of the capital plan rejection. New version to be presented in Jan 2015
  • 2014/05/30. SCUSA can pay its May 30th $0.15 dividend only after Santander Holdings USA provides it with an equivalent amount of extra capital (EN)
  • 2014/05/29. Sued by Providence city for redlining (EN) and (reuters)
    Not a special case: here Los Angeles suing JPM for the same reasons (EN)
     Legal system out of common sense, with lawyers beaming $ from their eyes.
  • 2014/03/26. Santander Holdings USA capital plan rejected by the federal reserve on qualitative concerns (EN). In page 7 of the assessment: "The Federal Reserve objected to the capital plan from Santander due to widespread and significant deficiencies across the BHC's capital planning processes"
    Comments from Marin on April 1st: EN
  • 2014/03/21. Subsidiary passes the local stress tests (ES) (EN)
  • 2013/11/05. Sovereign changing name. extra20 account. (EN)
    Santander is doing the same commercial push as in UK with the 1|2|3 account started beginning 2012. They want to grow organically, setting fees in the negative range. Both US and UK are nice targets with local banks milking with fees.
  • 2013/10/17. Botin talks about growth in US (EN)
    Objective is to double net earnings in 3 years by organic growth, 10% market share in NE US, does not rule out acquisitions.
  • 2013/09/21. Ally suing Santander US (EN)
    Claim Santander stole trade secrets with the Chrysler deal  As if Santander is unable to make consumer loans!

Poland

  • 2015/04/09. Dividend on hold for FY 2014 due to Switzerland (reuters)
  • 2014/11/28. SAN traded in Warsaw starting Dec 3rd (Communicate -EN)
  • 2014/06/03. Local subsidiary to buy the Polish activity of Santander Consumer finance (reuters)
    Issuing new shares. Depending on who subscribes it is a internal group reorganization or a capital increase. I guess Santander group will subscribe 75% of the shares, and as a consequence, the operation has an capital increase part of $177mi (value of the 25% not subscribed by the group)

China

  • 2014/12/22. China eases restrictions on foreign banks activity (bloomberg)
  • 2014/04/16. Botin in China speaks about BoS alliance (ES) and (EN)

Other 

  • 2014/11/13. Santander has asked a license in France to expand consumer finance beyond PSA (bloomberg
  • 2013/01/23. Santander opens a new bank in Colombia "Banco Santander de Negocios Colombia" with $100mi capital (ES) or here (but registration) (EN)
    Finally link to activity description (ES) [companies are the intended customers]

52 comments:

  1. On 29 November 2013 the S&P has upgraded its outlook on Spain to "stable" (from the previous "negative"), adding that the country's credit metrics are stabilizing.

    Is this news relative? For those who wrongly think that Banco Santander is no more than a Spanish bank, yes, this positive development is relative.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you. Personally I don't give any value to the rating agencies ratings, something similar related to many analysts..
      These links were more to be complete and I have fun following their actions.
      I remember the game the rating agencies have played during the sovereign debt crisis in summer 2012. They were at 2 cm to downgrade Germany. They did not because strong warnings that they were going too far, including the initiation of a process to start an European rating agency. I hope I still have the links. Will soon or later post them.

      Delete
  2. Santander has aquired much more loans from Ing in Mexico. Write offs in Mexico are related to realestate developer defaults in Mexico.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I want to add to micro branches and best practice sharing in group. Santader is employing similar strategy in China in a joint venture with China Costruction bank. As far as I know micro finance has a potential high ROE. It also alows Sanatander to have credit history on borrowers and strengthen it brand with ptential future banking customers. This is a great idea.

    http://m.foxbusiness.com/quickPage.html?page=32811&content=49984868&pageNum=-1

    ReplyDelete
  4. I have been thinking about extra dividends from Brazil and Mexico. As as far as I can understand it it will have zero effect on capital of group, because what will happen is that they will transfer money from Brazil and Mexico to corporate center Spain. There will be no goodwill or capital gain. Santander Brazil and Mexico will have lower capital and higher dept, which will be positive for ROE calculations and will lead to increase in share prices. But the real motive behinde the move is that Santander corporate center will underwrite most of newly issued debt and there for will get juicy 10% interest, which will be deductable from Brazil and Mexico company income tax and there for as a group Santander will have less taxes and more profit!!! Good for sharedholders:)

    ReplyDelete
  5. The constant publishing of positive articles on SAN in the Motley Fool is encouraging, as the Wall Street Journal just highlighted the star performance of this publication, whose 3 model portfolios won all 3 of HFD's top spots over a 5-year period:

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323997004578642030536573020

    "Consider this: The three top spots in the Hulbert Financial Digest's five-year rankings through June 30 of more than 200 investment-advisory services all buy and hold quality companies. Remarkably, all three are subscription newsletters published by the same advisory firm, the Motley Fool in Alexandria, Va., which was founded by brothers Tom and David Gardner in 1993.Consider this: The three top spots in the Hulbert Financial Digest's five-year rankings through June 30 of more than 200 investment-advisory services all buy and hold quality companies. Remarkably, all three are subscription newsletters published by the same advisory firm, the Motley Fool in Alexandria, Va., which was founded by brothers Tom and David Gardner in 1993."

    ReplyDelete
  6. Why is SAN selling SCUSA stake? Does it make strategic sense?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have no idea.
      Currently SAN has 65% of SCUSA, and this will go down to 61% with the IPO. These 61% are under the 75% they target in the subsidiary model.
      Perhaps it is a demand of the current other shareholders.

      Delete
    2. My take about this is that they want the market to price their subsidiaries. Don't forget in Spain the bank probably does not have a lot of capital. As their subsidiaries are priced by the market any stress testers will have less difficulty in putting a price on their holdings. This likely also explains the rather small stake they are selling. There is no rush for the UK as that bank will be stress tested separately anyway.

      Delete
    3. I don't think market pricing is an objective. Take for example Brazil. At today SANB11 value of R$11.62, market gives a sub value of around 65% of the net asset value.

      My guess is that in general, 25% free float has 2 objectives: (1) Add an extra control level (local shareholders) and (2) local regulators good handling above the local liquidity and capital.

      In the case of Brazil and Poland, the 25% free float was a local regulator requirement to approve acquisition (Banco Real in Brazil, KBC sub in Poland)

      In the case of Mexico no regulator requirement, but good market situation.

      SCUSA IPO was probably asked by the other shareholders wanted to cash out. SAN sold only 4%; but got a big capital gain because the whole participation is reevaluated.

      In UK, Q4 results were the best for the whole group. But this is not yet recognized. Furthermore there will be further improvements: IPO after 2014, and only with good price possible.

      Related to Spanish subsidiary capital level, I doubt there are lacking capital now because they have deleveraged a lot in the country. But with a LTD at 87% in the country, they have, keeping the current deposit level, a loan growth potential of 30%, to reach the comfort LTD level of 105-110%. On the other hand guidance for earnings in Spain is €1bi in 2014 and €3bi in 2016. This together with the €10bi local DTA generates a lot of capital, locally or at group level through dividends.

      Capital at group level? -> Capital tab

      Delete
    4. Related to the Spanish subsidiary capital, there is also the effect of the de Guindos real estate provisions. As far as I know, they were not tax deductible: went as DTA (and with BIS 3...). However there has been the internal bad bank setup and I cannot imagine this did not handle the capital side.

      Delete
  7. There are interesting comments in this SA news:
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/1500191-santanders-u-s-consumer-unit-files-for-ipo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Comments in that news seem to converge on current other shareholders (partly) cashing out

      Delete
  8. Could also be that they are trying to allocate capital more efficiently. Growth elsewhere could be higher than in this market.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Vincent was traveling yesterday and probably still today.

    Here's another article on the Motley Fool, with specific mention of "Exposure to lucrative developing markets in Latin America"......"performance in the UK"...."Spain having emerged from recession"..."Increased share in Spanish loans and deposits markets" ...."Improved EPS estimates for 2014 and 2015" ... etc. :
    http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2014/01/15/the-surprising-buy-case-for-banco-santander-sa/

    ReplyDelete
  10. I have been thinking about Santander earnings in Brazil in 2014. As I see it Selic rate is rising, which will lead to higher exchange rate EUR/REAL and will increase net interest income. Both factors will increase earnings in EUR. Do I think correct? Any comments?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Yes raising SELIC fights inflation and also defends BRL against EUR with as consequence better SANB11 (BSBR) consolidation

    Brazil is a complex but interesting situation. SELIC only is a very limited element.

    At the basis Brazilian economy is a nearly closed economy through import taxes and regulations.
    The protected local production is in general of poor quality.
    The country succeeds exporting raw materials and agricultural production (Embraer and ambev are exceptions). This means that Brazil goes well when China does well.

    There is also the impact of Petrobras (10% of the country GDP) investment plan: $237bi on 5 years. That puts medium term pressure on the trade balance. However the end result will be doubling the oil production to 4mi BoE per day.
    It is also a democracy with a strong social focus (similar to what exists in Europe, but with less accumulated wealth, and a deficit in education mainly for past. Sometimes it goes further: the minimum salary is automatically increased with last year inflation, AND an average of the last 2 years GDP growth). The government policies put pressure on some industries, mainly oil (price controls), electricity (price controls) and banking (50% of the banking industry has Brazil as controlling shareholder, try to lower interest rates, with limited success)

    However Brazil has an incredible quantity of natural resources. I see the current pressure by the financial community as a way to create good investment opportunities. We have a very similar scenario as in 2011-2012 for Spain: There are real problems but they do not justify the bashing. And of course some rating agencies are participating.

    The most juicy target is Petrobras. The company could go in deep trouble in case both the company and Brazil itself are cut from global bonds markets. It is not an accident that NSA target(ted) the company. But the probability for this to occur has very low probability. The reasons are: (1) In case Petrobras has cash problems (say rolling over expiring bonds), the country will jump. Brazil has only 35% of GDP as net debt, a primary surplus, a positive trade balance, $375bi as foreign reserves,... (2) this week Petrobras issued R$11bi bonds. The bulk was in €, the rest was in GBP. This goes together with 2 recent investments in electrity with as foreign partner companies in China and India. And the Libra oil field was attributed to a group of 5 companies (Petrobras + 2 in Europe + 2 in China, that oil field has something like 8bi BoE reserves). In total, the $ financing markets could become difficult, but there are other players (Europe, China, ...)

    There is also the fear that QE end will trigger an investment outflow. I doubt it will ever occur: too many resources. In case it happens, this will be a good use of the foreign reserves to fill the holes.

    Brazilian central bank is also doing a good job. The banking industry is very solid. They push SELIC against the will of the politicians to keep inflation under control. They use other tools to increase the price of shorting the BRL

    Santander is hit through the pressure on BRL. SELIC increase is good for that aspect. But this is not enough when looking at the amount of money at play. My personal opinion is that the apex of the pressure is not reached and weak BRL is part of the game.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thanks for comments, but I would also add infrastructure investment and world soccer cup as big elements in the puzzle. They should be supportive for BRL and economy.

    ReplyDelete
  13. UBS raises the price target from 6 to 7, hold.

    SCUSA IPO Deal size increased to 75M shares and new price range of $24 to $25 according to http://seekingalpha.com/article/1959371-santander-consumer-ipo-poised-for-initial-success-despite-the-ceos-outrageous-compensation?source=feed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. re.: Price Targets

      I couldn't find the document on the internet with the UBS's 7.0 Eur price target for SAN.

      Separately, it is interesting to go back to the January of 2013 and see how the analysts performed with their 12-month price targets.

      According to the list published above by Vincent under the title "Analysts" : Only the N+1 and Keefe have been on the target with their 6.7 Eur estimates. All other analysts (including JP Morgan in July) missed it big time!

      Conclusion: Analysts' opinions and recommendations? Thank you, but no, thank you!

      Delete
  14. A new market (Or, return to an old market) :

    "Santander returns to Colombia with US$100mn in initial capital

    By Business News Americas staff reporter - Friday, January 24, 2014

    Santander returns to the Colombian financial market after its departure in June 2012. The bank will return under the new name, Banco Santander de Negocios Colombia, with an initial capital of US$100mn".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks. I have updated the acquisition tab with the 5 last operations

      Delete
  15. Fantastic new regarding the proposed 2014 entire SCRIP dividend. This stock is going to soar. We just don't know when.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I love the news also: tax free dividends for longer period.
      What will the group do with the extra €10bi capital (6 scrips: the current one, then the last installment for FY 2013, and 4 scrips for FY 2014)?
      AQR results (I am optimistic), significant acquisition (they have too much excess capital for organic growth only), good earnings starting 2014, favorable RWA regulations,... to get shares up.

      Delete
  16. If emerging market currencies fall some 20% from todays rates and ECB stress test finds some capital "shortfall" in SAN. You will have to wait a long time till shares soar.
    I am long SAN, but there are some considerable possible dangers ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Here is link to possible acquisition in Germany
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/us-lonestar-ikb-idUSBREA0U0T020140131

    I am very optimistic on Austrian and German acquisitions because:

    1) Mature and well regulated markets
    2) Private equity companies involved and SAN has very solid track record in dealing with them
    3) SAN is already present in these markets

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will be interesting to see whether they will make a bid on that one. They have been very careful in not paying too much and they have so far not bought any of the distressed Spanish banks. I would not be surprised if they were outbid by BNP, if they bid that is.

      Delete
    2. Regarding to the Austrian Bank:
      1) It is not clear that the Bawag is for sale - just rumors until now.
      2) The Bawag might be requiered to pay up to 400mn EUR to the muicipal of Linz for negligent advice - the outcome of this dispute is open.

      Delete
  18. I am wondering if low 10 Y yields on Spains bonds are a sign of things improving or a sign of long term stagnation? Does any one have any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is strongly positive in total:
      -Lower financing costs for Spain and companies.
      -Then for holders, capital gains

      There is also a soft bad side:
      - lost an easy money making
      - risk of stopping cleaning efforts
      - make clear rating agencies problems:

      Delete
  19. I am getting upset by strong EUR. My guess is that it will trim some 3% from SAN Q1 results:( and there are still no M&A announcments.

    ReplyDelete
  20. You're correct about the negative effect on SAN's overseas earnings. However, it may give a boost to European stocks in general as declining inflation will encourage the ECB to maintain a loose monetary policy.

    Spain's economy is also improving steadily on all fronts.

    ReplyDelete
  21. And for M&A, patience is a virtue. Probably much more active by end of the year with the EU banking union results, and 1st year under BIS III.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Good example on global retail bank intiative and using best practices for the whole group:

    http://www.santander.com/csgs/Satellite/CFWCSancomQP01/en_GB/Corporate/Press-Room/2014/03/25/Santander-launches-Santander-Advance-a-global-strategy-to-become-SMEs-partner-for-growth.html

    ReplyDelete
  23. I want to comment on wether SAN can make 8bi GBP in 2016. My answer is yes, because if you add 3bi EUR (estimate for profit in Spain 2016) to last years profit of 4,37bi and add announced savings of 1bi and some growth in volumes and margins and I also believe that by 2016 it will be possible to release some provisions. I get an estimate of profit in 2016 of around 10,5bi EUR.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The estimated 3bi EUR from Spain surely include the release of provisions and savings (from Spain).

      Delete
    2. The BAML Sep 2013 presentation gives an idea (slide 27):
      - Lower cost of deposits: +0.5bi
      - Cost savings from merge: +0.42bi
      - Lower provisions: +1.5-2.0bi
      -> +€3.0bi swing, pre-tax earnings, to 2016 (from 2013?).
      No release of provisions however + no increase of loans (return to LTD around 105-110% in Spain)

      Delete
  24. Why does SAN offer so high yield on new bonds? I guess 6% would be more than enough.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is not normal bond: convertible into shares in case SAN capital goes under 5.125%, and thus part of additional core capital.
      As far as interest on the bonds are under the ROE it is a lever for normal capital.
      Still coupon is higher than the 5.125% coupon of the March CoCo: market's conditions...

      Delete
  25. seems that BES could be good match for SAN as there could be good synergies. and BBVA already made a purchase. what do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the price is good, that can be interesting.
      But Santander Totta has currently around 10% of the market, plus 15% for BES, that would make a total of 25%. That is a lot and would change Santander's role in the country.
      Currently all core entities have market share at around 10%. This is probably no accident: Such a size gives local scale economies, but still allows to be commercially selective.
      So I am not very favorable. I prefer Santander to start commercial banking in another country, and push for organic growth in Portugal where it is interesting.

      Delete
    2. I tend to agree on this with Vincent, although I am going to phrase my thoughts in different words.

      To me, SAN having the 10% of the cake in a dynamic, promising market ( = growth potential) would be a lot better than the same SAN having 25% share in a market like Portugal which does not seem to be on a path for change or growth.

      Delete
  26. Comments on the news of the 27 August:

    - The planned emission (next week) of COCO : Excellent!
    - The British (and US) press which has been forecasting "a dividend cut 'next year(?), for years and years and years : NUTS

    All together : COCO-NUTS! Yummy!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Of course a 'dividend-cut' from 8,1% to 6,9% is possible - if the dividend stays at 0,6 EUR and the share-price increases to 8,9 EUR.

      Delete
    2. That is remembering me the funniest US/UK explanation of falling DY:
      "Does Banco Santander SA pass my triple-yield test (http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2014/04/17/does-banco-santander-sa-pass-my-triple-yield-test/?source=uptyholnk3030001)". DY down because strong GBP against EUR!
      Then there are the usual errors taking wrong data, or computing using net value,... Never read: numerator stable, denominator higher.
      Something like 1% of US/UK financial sources succeeds to compute right which is probably is psychological blockage.

      Delete
  27. I bought more shares as soon as I heard the news and will continue buying if it falls further. As you correctly wrote, Vincent, the Reuters article was stinky: Ana Botin was the obvious choice, a brilliant banker who worked wonders with the bank's U.K. operations. I believe she may be even tougher than her dad, which will ensure continuity of the bank's twin strategy of reducing risk and identifying bargain basement opportunities.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Emilio Botin death is a sad situation.
      At 79 years and with his dynamism, it was a risk.

      As you said the fact that his daughter succeeds removes probably the last uncertainty around Santander
      It is continuity and the will of Emilio Botin

      Her work in UK was incredible.

      Her character is very different from what you see in Anglo-Saxon financial world. She is a Spanish aristocrat, married with a Grand of Spain. Proud to hold her rank, including through correct handling her responsibilities is above personal financial gains. Anyone having spent some time in Spain will understand what I mean.

      The part where she did not prove her competences is in strategic M&A.
      That was the task of Emilio Botin.
      But I think the medium term targets are already identified, and the team behind is still in place.

      Delete
    2. Fully agreed. I am very familiar with Spain's history of 'Pundonor'. She is the steadiest and most reliable person to take over.

      Delete
  28. Definition of "Pundonor" is
    "Sense of personal dignity that demands self care and continuous dedication to a job or profession"
    ty for that word, this is what I meant. A word is much more convenient than a phrase

    ReplyDelete