Technicals

2014/08/23

Chart-wise this month's action was very interesting. As you can see from the latest 3-year Weekly Chart, there are 2 major uptrends and a Fibonacci target that together created an amazing inflection point on August 4th. As written earlier, trendlines and Fibonacci points often create self-fulfilling prophecies:

On August 4th the price hit a low of EUR 7.037, almost exactly the 23.6 % retracement of the 7.936 high. This was also the orange coloured uptrend line (mid-channel) of the rise from July 2012, as well as the steeper mauve-coloured uptrend line from July 2013.

Clearly some people are paying attention to the charts!

Long term, the steepest uptrend line (mauve) suggests peaks of EUR 9.30 end 2014 and EUR 11.40 end 2015.

2014/07/26

Quote from Strike: "The chart is incredibly positive"

On January 10th (the EURO price closed at 6.74) I wrote: "SAN looks set to challenge the 38.2 % long term Fib retracement at EUR 8.27 this year -- See the upper trendline on the 3rd (= Weekly) chart."

Well, it almost got there in half the forecasted time period even though most other stocks struggled to make new highs . I am convinced we will easily soar above that level, based on a combination of positive fundamentals and technicals.

2014/07/16

Recent technical analysis (ES)

2014/01/10

I (Strike) am very excited by the Long Term Chart following last week's price moves. Everything looks exceptionally bullish from a technical viewpoint:

1. SAN closed above the highly significant 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement from the 10-year high. This follows 2 failures to breach this level (EUR 6.63) in February 2012 and January 2013. Each prior failure preceded a large decline.

2. The monthly MACD/RSI/MOM indicators are pointing strongly upwards, which suggests strength behind the latest rally.

3. On the daily chart (2nd chart), all 4 Moving Averages (28-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day) are pointing upwards. The MAs are one of the favourite tools of Chris Ciovacco (rated No. 1 for Market Outlook on Seeking Alpha), so this also bodes well for continuation of the uptrend.

Warning: Barring a 'Black Swan' event SAN looks set to challenge the 38.2 % long term Fib retracement at EUR 8.27 this year -- See the upper trendline on the 3rd (= Weekly) chart.

2013/12/21

When the price broke below both 6-month trendlines, as well as the 23.6 % Fib retracement, it looked like much steeper declines were in order. But the price twice bounced off EUR 6.01 (= the 38.20 % retracement of the recent high) and ended with a good weekly close. So it suggests that some investors do indeed base their decisions on Fibonacci levels..

In my opinion, the price recovery owed more to the Fed's involvement, and the general global stock market recovery, than to any SAN-related factors. QIV results will hopefully provide positive fireworks for SAN.

Merry Christmas to everyone!

2013/12/13

The short term uptrend line was firmly broken, despite a weak attempt to hold above 6.25 on Friday, so I expect much steeper declines to the 5.70 - 5.30 area. This would represent a superb buying opportunity since the long term trend (10-year chart, see attachment) is firmly up and should continue upwards as soon as the "weak hands" and day-traders are shaken out at these retracement levels. A retracement to as low as EUR 5.30 would leave the long term trend perfectly intact and ready for a breach of EUR 7.00 in January/February.

2013/12/04

Many believe charts are witchcraft, as I once did, but I believe it pays to know some of the basics as many investors base their decisions on technical factors, so these often become self-fulfilling prophecies. This is especially true of short term movements, For example, the SAN one-year daily Euro chart reveals clear Fibonacci patterns and trend lines as follows:

One can clearly see a steep uptrend channel since mid-July. The price has just touched the bottom of the channel which provides some support. Greater support is provided by the Fibonacci 23.6 % retracement from the October high, which held steady despite 5 attempts to break through it. Further support is provided by extremely strong MACD, RSI and Momentum oscillators that have been trending up relentlessly since April.

Conclusion: SAN has been moving sideways for the past 2 months and looks ready to uncoil upwards and take out the October high. However, a decline below EUR 6.25 would knock out several major supports and threaten much steeper declines.

The 10-Year chart is extremely positive on all counts and we'll examine this later.