17 December 2013

Sovereign exposure of Santander

It has been a long time that one of the doubt I had about Santander was its detailed exposure to sovereign risk, in particular to Spain. Not that I fear a default, but because it is currently a good way for the Company to make money. Recently EBA published a "transparency exercise" that details that data at 2 key dates: 2012/12/31 and 2013/06/30. It is a pity that the end data is end of Q2 2013 and not Q3. Original data is here (EN).
Btw, it is not the biggest doubt I have about the Company. The biggest one is the shareholder structure and how Botin gets his mandate. The 2nd biggest one is a detailed workout of the DTA new regulations and its impact on capital ratio, including the effects of reasonable future earnings projections in Spain to 2019. If anyone has answers to these doubts, please let them know.

Here is the sovereign exposure, all amounts in €mi.
Residual
Maturity
Total
Gross
of which
Loans
Total
Net
of which
AFS
of which
At fair value
of which
Trading
End 2012





0-3M 651 166 643 0 0 446
3M-1Y 4452 784 3843 0 0 3059
1Y-2Y 2797 1699 2566 0 0 867
2Y-3Y 5925 4789 5615 125 0 -120
3Y-5Y 6991 3057 6293 2939 0 217
5Y-10Y 22144 2812 22010 19180 0 18
10Y-more 4839 2049 4615 2410 0 -85
Total Spain 47798 15356 45586 24654 0 4403
Total Group 66051 15997 55014 34519
3326
end S1 2013





0-3M 1344 150 1343 0 131 1062
3M-1Y 6156 1294 5639 199 13 4132
1Y-2Y 2752 1357 2376 2 82 -80
2Y-3Y 4453 3365 4182 183 549 84
3Y-5Y 13672 4833 12679 8172 291 -747
5Y-10Y 29989 3088 29541 25277 295 881
10Y-more 8594 1956 7824 6202 208 -542
Total Spain 66958 16044 63584 40035 1570 4790
Total Group 90877 16762 74743 52231 1570 3025
Relative growth





0-3M 106.45% -9.64% 108.86% NM NM 138.12%
3M-1Y 38.27% 65.05% 46.73% NM NM 35.08%
1Y-2Y -1.61% -20.13% -7.40% NM NM -109.23%
2Y-3Y -24.84% -29.73% -25.52% 46.40% NM -170.00%
3Y-5Y 95.57% 58.10% 101.48% 178.05% NM -444.24%
5Y-10Y 35.43% 9.82% 34.22% 31.79% NM 4794.44%
10Y-more 77.60% -4.54% 69.53% 157.34% NM 537.65%
Total Spain 40.09% 4.48% 39.48% 62.39% NM 8.79%
Total Group 37.59% 4.78% 35.86% 51.31% NM -9.05%

Net sovereign exposure to Spain Q2 2013 at €64bi, up 40% in 6 months, representing 85% of the total exposure to sovereign risk! That includes €16bi of direct loans. However €40bi of this exposure is available for sale.
That is much more than I thought and the increase is impressive for 2 reasons: (1) 40% growth in 6 months and (2) it happens after the height of the Spanish crisis that happened in summer 2012.
I think this is a good part of the explanation of the RWA decrease by 8% in Q2 2013.

4 comments:

  1. Increase in sovereign exposure could be due to increased liquidity of group. More deposits and less loans. As I understand it there are not much options for banks to use this liquidity in any other way than sovereign bonds. Besides Spanish bonds could earn Santander some extra money as Spaish economy is recovering. This also indicates that Santander believes in Spanish recovery and is betting big money on it. Or it could be big politics - helping Spain to borrow more cheaply and earning political favors.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, parking excess liquidity on relatively high yield bonds is surely a factor. But sovereign bonds have also the major advantage to have 0 risk weight so not sure it is only liquidity parking. However regulation can change related to that.

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  2. in this article there is some info on sovereign exposure
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/327217b6-5ddc-11e3-8fca-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2nlAne5WZ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For those who are not subscribed to FT:
      Put the Link in Google Search and click on the found link to get to the article.

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