Stress tests results

• Communicate
• Detailed results of Santander
• Aggregate results. At page 10, list of the 25 banks with capital deficit, for a total of €24.62bi, going down to 11 banks and €9.47bi after considering the capital increases already done in 2014

The exercise has issued a mouse, with only significant problems in Greece, Cyprus and Italy.
In particular, compare with the news below (Jan 2014) where Bloomberg reports a €767bi capital shortfall to the net results: less than €10bi!
That Bloomberg article has no methodology description. The aggregate stress results document has extensive methodology description. Such a difference is a major disturbance. How could they write a €0.75tr capital shortfall???
There is a real problem there and I hope Bloomberg gets to justify previous  article.
But of course it will not occur.
Confirmation of boolshit information in the Anglo-Saxon financial press is the main output of the stress tests! 

Related news (to clean the News tab)

• 2014/10/28. 36 banks would have failed with BIS III full load (reuters)
  Stress tests results were too good. Full load perspective allows to write negative article. Difference between EZ countries related to the loading rate is also spam. BIS 3 itself  contains the loading rules. The bulk of the legislation is at EU level (CRD IV and CRR). Only CRD IV has local legislation implementation.
• 2014/10/24. An excellent stress test synthesis (ES)
  By Eduardo Segovia, probably providing the best information about Spanish banks
  Reuters also has an overview before Sunday.
  Finally Bloomberg saying 25 banks to fail
• 2014/10/23. More rumors on Sunday stress tests results (ES)
• 2014/10/22. At least 11 banks to fail stress tests (reuters)
  But previous rumors were also listing smaller German banks (not DB and Commerzbank)
  Most of the banks are named here (FR)
  In Belgium: Dexia, In Austria: Erste, In Portugal: Millenium MCP. None in Spain
  As SAN shareholder, I am not interested in Italy, Cyprus and Greece...
• 2014/10/15. Linde; BdE chief protests to BCE and EBA about the last minutes stress test changes (ES)
  The excluded rules are the same as those taken in other EZ countries, simply taken one month later.
• 2014/10/09. Stress test results will be communicated to the banks on Friday, Oct 24th (at 12:00 CET, by BdE, with confidentiality agreement (ES), publicly on Sunday Oct 26th, 12:00 CET (ES) (ES)
  Impact of the last hour changes is negative 30-40bpp, and were taken under the pressure of Germany/France.
• 2014/10/06. Last hour changes in stress tests rules (ES)
  Previous article was expressing the fear it would occur: "even too well". Another version is "the Spanish banks are doing too well, and that is worrying us", dixit one week ago the president of a Spanish bank.
  It happened on Sep 25th. As a result, Santander's tests will go from "excellent" to good or satisfactory. Differences between Spanish banks on one side and German, French, Italian banks on the other side will be less humiliating.
  The changes of tests rules is: legislation changes taken after 01/01/2014 but with application starting at that date are not considered: DTA in Portugal, goodwill, financial participations.
  This decision does not make sense (except on political grounds) as show the following scenario.
  With these new stress test rules, a Spanish bank goes under capital ratio requirements. Must recapitalize; How? Let's apply the excluded legislation rules. Done.
• 2014/09/24. ECB stress tests results comments about Spanish banks (ES)
  Officially for end end October, but look as the banks always know the results. Anonymous comment "the Spanish banks do very well, even too well".
• 2014/08/20. EBA publishes details about Oct stress tests data (ES)
• 2014/04/29. During stress tests, public debt in trading portfolio or AFS is to be valuated at market prices (following the stressed situation, 5.6% for 10Y against 3.1% now) and consumes capital  (ES)
  Germany prevailed on that point. However the general parameters are softer for Spain than for other EU countries (ES)
  And here is the information at its source (EN) in particular the document (EN) that details the parameters.
  Zerohedge article about the parameters: it is a farce because the adverse scenario does not consider deflation. The adverse scenario has low probability to realize. But test results are for sure to trigger some effects. Better to stay at what cannot be controlled.
  On Mai 6th: a clean overview of the effects (ES)
  On May 14th: Colleterals for loans related to real estate loans to companies considered (ES)
  And de Guindos comments: "Stress tests in 2012 by Oliver Wyman" were much tougher".
• 2014/04/21. Stress parameters to be communicated on April 29th. -1% GDP, 28% unemployment? (ES). Adverse scenario is 27.1% unemployment and recession to 2016 (ES)
• 2014/04/07. Stress tests parameters under discussion: Spain: GDP -6% on 3 years (ES) and unemployment at 32% (ES)? Pre-stress tests to be done by BdE by April 30th and discussions about parameters (ES). Pre-tests denied the day after (EN)
  Different parameters per country!
• 2014/03/05. ECB 128 big banks assessment has started (EN)
  That is the first link to spiegel.de I put in the blog. I read the international spiegel every day since beginning of 2012. Should I have started the blog earlier, then there would have been many more links in particular in 2012. Always well documented and investigated articles. The German view is a must to follow Europe.
  More specifically related to Santander, my feeling reading this article is that banks with excess capital will have many M&A possibilities due to the ECB current process.
• 2014/02/12. ECB to distribute the banks to the big 4 consultancy on Feb 17th for the stress tests (ES). Ernst & Young will handle Santander. (ES)
  Capital level as BISIII phased in, includes out of EU assets, must stay at 8% or higher.
• 2014/01/31. Stress tests and AQR (EN)
• 2014/01/18. European banks face a €767bi capital shortfall in AQR (EN)
  In this article, the major deficits are in (1) France [285bi] (2) Germany [199bi]
• 2014/01/16. Information about the stress tests (ES)
  With so much politics.
• 2014/01/15. BCE: Sovereign debt (not available for sale) valorized at face value for the stress tests (ES)
• 2013/11/24. War between Spain and Germany about stress tests (ES)
  1st salvo from Spain. Hard stress tests as last year in Spain
  2nd salvo from Germany (supported by France and Italy): Include sovereign debt
  3rd salvo from Spain. the market value of many bonds are higher than face value
  4th salvo from Germany. In stress tests, we need to simulate ... a stressed situation
• 2013/10/23. General description about what will be the ECB stress tests (ES)
• 2013/10/04. de Guindos defies Merkel to make the ECB stress tests as tough as those done for the Spanish banks (ES)