Thanks Strike One of the biggest problem I had so far is to organize the information about San Tomorrow I intend to go through the reuters news back to start of the year and link the relevant stories. With clean organization, this will provide a good view Then I should complete the capital tab, and make a new one "Acquisition and sales"... Feel free to post as you want. btw, Debutant is also joining Possibly we should extend to new members. But it is best to discuss these things in the forum
Santander's public relations department (and the webmaster) should have a lot to learn from you and your blog.
What you have just created here is actually a library with depth and substance, with which you are doing great service to anyone who is seriously interested in knowing about investing in Banco Santander.
Unpleasant development on the Spanish bad loan ratio. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-11-18/spain-bank-bad-loan-ratio-climbed-to-record-12-dot-7-percent-in-september
Vincent, Here's an English language version of the NCG news that you have already listed on the blog under "News". We may have the result before the end of the year 2013.
The following line seems to be the most alarming of them all in the article that covers the latest developments "Germany,France and Italy vs. Spain" (see "News" in the blog) :
Si estos argumentos no tienen éxito y finalmente el Bubdesbank impone sus criterios, el resultado puede ser desastroso para algunas de nuestras entidades, que pueden ver que su envidiable posición de solvencia actual (máxime después de que se salven los DTA, activos fiscales diferidos) se viene abajo y necesitan captar más capital de forma totalmente inesperada".
I think the problem is not relevant for Santander. Relative to their size, they have low amount of Spanish public debt. (I was a little bit disappointed that they did not make easy money using LTRO to buy gov debt. Now once again I am thankful for their careful risk management) The second point, is that (a) most of the bonds have a market value higher than their face value due to the drop for the Spanish interest rates and (b) there is foreign demand for gov debt.
On a technical level, the 10-year, 3-year and 1-year charts are very bullish, with rising MACD/RSI/MOM indicators on all 3. While not infallible, I find these indicators to be correct approx. 70 % of the time. The 10-year is especially revealing, with massive basing action since January 2009, with the 28-month indicator turning up as it did in 2004 before a 100 % rise to above EUR 15.00. If these technical patterns repeat themselves they will take the share price to EUR 12 - 13.00 before a large correction.
Of course, a general market 'event' could cause a sharp decline irrespective of SAN's earnings and cash flow results, so I'm keeping a close eye on market fundamentals (10-Year Treasury Note yield, etc.,.).
nice, but you should post that kind of information directly in the blog as a new post. I saw in the administrative tools you posted this. It took me hours to find where:)
Outstanding start to your blog, Vincent. One cannot find this depth and relevance of information anywhere else. Congratulations, and thanks!
ReplyDeleteThanks Strike
ReplyDeleteOne of the biggest problem I had so far is to organize the information about San
Tomorrow I intend to go through the reuters news back to start of the year and link the relevant stories.
With clean organization, this will provide a good view
Then I should complete the capital tab, and make a new one "Acquisition and sales"...
Feel free to post as you want.
btw, Debutant is also joining
Possibly we should extend to new members.
But it is best to discuss these things in the forum
Vincent,
ReplyDeleteSantander's public relations department (and the webmaster) should have a lot to learn from you and your blog.
What you have just created here is actually a library with depth and substance, with which you are doing great service to anyone who is seriously interested in knowing about investing in Banco Santander.
Felicitations, mon cher ami.
Unpleasant development on the Spanish bad loan ratio.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-11-18/spain-bank-bad-loan-ratio-climbed-to-record-12-dot-7-percent-in-september
Vincent,
ReplyDeleteHere's an English language version of the NCG news that you have already listed on the blog under "News". We may have the result before the end of the year 2013.
http://www.4-traders.com/CAIXABANK-SA-357103/news/Spain-launches-sale-of-nationalized-lender-NCG-Banco-17478683/
The following line seems to be the most alarming of them all in the article that covers the latest developments "Germany,France and Italy vs. Spain" (see "News" in the blog) :
ReplyDeleteSi estos argumentos no tienen éxito y finalmente el Bubdesbank impone sus criterios, el resultado puede ser desastroso para algunas de nuestras entidades, que pueden ver que su envidiable posición de solvencia actual (máxime después de que se salven los DTA, activos fiscales diferidos) se viene abajo y necesitan captar más capital de forma totalmente inesperada".
I think the problem is not relevant for Santander.
DeleteRelative to their size, they have low amount of Spanish public debt.
(I was a little bit disappointed that they did not make easy money using LTRO to buy gov debt. Now once again I am thankful for their careful risk management)
The second point, is that (a) most of the bonds have a market value higher than their face value due to the drop for the Spanish interest rates and (b) there is foreign demand for gov debt.
Interesting and extremely positive article in Sunday's Motley Fool with the caption "The Pros and Cons of Investing in Banco Santander":
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2013/11/29/the-pros-and-cons-of-investing-in-banco-santander-sa.aspx?source=uptyholnk3030001
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the macro news on November manufacturing in Spain is not good and will negatively affect SAN's commercial banking results in its home base:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rttnews.com/2232089/spanish-manufacturing-activity-contracts-in-november.aspx
On a technical level, the 10-year, 3-year and 1-year charts are very bullish, with rising MACD/RSI/MOM indicators on all 3. While not infallible, I find these indicators to be correct approx. 70 % of the time. The 10-year is especially revealing, with massive basing action since January 2009, with the 28-month indicator turning up as it did in 2004 before a 100 % rise to above EUR 15.00. If these technical patterns repeat themselves they will take the share price to EUR 12 - 13.00 before a large correction.
ReplyDeleteOf course, a general market 'event' could cause a sharp decline irrespective of SAN's earnings and cash flow results, so I'm keeping a close eye on market fundamentals (10-Year Treasury Note yield, etc.,.).
nice,
Deletebut you should post that kind of information directly in the blog as a new post. I saw in the administrative tools you posted this. It took me hours to find where:)
OK, I'll get the hang of it! I sent you a pm to your gmail address, with some suggestions.
Delete