27 November 2013

Seekingalpha article 2013/11/27

Today there was a new article about Santander on SA. (EN)
It is positive tone.
But I will never ever have a new activity on SA.
There are 2 main reasons for that:

  • US/UK news have a very low quality in general, especially or at least when handling non US topics
  • too many frustrating manipulations.
However US/UK news and comments are interesting to follow for the simple reason that they influence a significant share of the total investments. Any significant push can be a significant investment opportunity. As an example I bought 13k SAN ADR on 2012/07/25 and then 13k again on 2012/07/27. The reason: the big investors helped by the press was making the final push to break Spain. It was very efficient: IBEX diving. And because of that it was obvious that a response from the EZ authorities and Spain was imminent. 

The article itself is a sensible presentation of the last Santander financial statements but without any context information and some mandatory topics not touched. Some errors and partial understanding also:
  • "It has about $1.9 billion in managed funds
    Must be 1000 times more
  • "It is able to achieve this efficiency through cost savings, such as the shared IT platform across its business units"
    Missing the 10% market size requirement, and others (I should dig the Mexico IPO filing. It has a very deep level of information including on that subject)
The current missing mandatory subjects in a article about Santander are DTA, Basel III/capital/acquisitions, EZ banking union, dividend sustainability.

As always I prefer the comments

  • "Ive noticed alot of SAN branches opening in my area (NJ) any thoughts?"
    Yeap Sovereign now under Santander brand
  • "They used to operate under a different brand. SAN's american divsion decided to rebrand those banks as geniune Santander banks. Not much else to it."
    It is much more than that. It comes together with extra20 account. Part of a major commercial push in NE US. I have never read any rumors about that, but I think one of the main hunting ground for Botin will be US. All will depend on the BISIII effect on opportunities prices.
  • "I think the market is near the top, I'm expecting a drop (next 1-2months) to buy at lower prices."
    DTA new regulation is nearby (This Friday?). Low probability he gets a buying window at lower price (except significant non forecastable macro event)
  • "The yield is only apparently high. Investors have to consider that taking the scrip dividend they don't get anything they didn't already have before. "
    Plain wrong, but too long for here.
  • My friend Jaypar.
    "They've increased the share count tremendously" Please check the capital increases to have a measure of the stuff
    "Maximum cash dividend payout". If BdE extends the measure in 2014, also for companies with capital surplus, could cause perhaps one more dividend under script than initially planned, not much more
    "
    Would like to see an analysis of what SANs earnings..." That is why I love the leakages Santander did. But this is not enough. Growth is needed, or share repurchases to have a LT payout at 40-50%. That is why I love any news about DTA, capital surplus, deleveraging caused by BISIII or EZ banking union

1 comment:

  1. Your words on "negative press" are so true, Vincent! I am aware of it. I am disgusted by it. I fight it as much as I can. But, I must admit, the best ever buying opportunities have come to me when those manipulators were penning horror stories on investment websites. In other words, the *&^#!% manipulators have helped me reduce my cost base (and increase the dividend yield) when they were actually trying to destroy the company I was (I am) invested in.

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